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Olympique Khouribga vs UTS Rabat — Botola 2 2025

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
FT
0 – 0
UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
5/21/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 23Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Olympique Khouribga35%
×Draw31%
UTS Rabat34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
1.02
UTS Rabat
1.00

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.11
UTS Rabat
1.17

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
0.84
UTS Rabat
0.93

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

UTS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
66%
Olympique Khouribga or UTS Rabat
69%
Draw or UTS Rabat
65%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
13%
UTS Rabat wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
64%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
27%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
8%
UTS Rabat 1+ goals
63%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
26%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
51%
UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.84 · 45 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 1.17, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.11 + UTS Rabat defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

UTS Rabat attack 1.17 + Olympique Khouribga defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
35%
level
31%
UTS Rabat scores more
34%

Olympique Khouribga at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Olympique Khouribga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Khouribga vs UTS Rabat

Olympique Khouribga and UTS Rabat drew 0-0 in Botola 2 on May 21, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.