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Olympique Khouribga vs UTS Rabat — Cup 2020

Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
AET
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
4/5/2024CupCup · Round of 16Stade du Phosphate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Olympique Khouribga25%
×Draw24%
UTS Rabat51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Olympique Khouribga
1.08
UTS Rabat
1.67

UTS Rabat creates 55% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

creates per match

Olympique Khouribga
1.17
UTS Rabat
2.50

allows per match

Olympique Khouribga
0.83
UTS Rabat
1.00

finishing

Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par
UTS Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Olympique Khouribga ↓

UTS Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Olympique Khouribga or draw
49%
Olympique Khouribga or UTS Rabat
76%
Draw or UTS Rabat
75%

Winning margin

Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
9%
UTS Rabat wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
66%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
29%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
10%
UTS Rabat 1+ goals
81%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
50%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
33%
UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Olympique Khouribga at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

UTS Rabat away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.17 + UTS Rabat defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

UTS Rabat attack 2.50 + Olympique Khouribga defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Olympique Khouribga scores more
25%
level
24%
UTS Rabat scores more
51%

UTS Rabat at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "UTS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Olympique Khouribga vs UTS Rabat

Olympique Khouribga and UTS Rabat drew 2-2 in Cup on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Stade du Phosphate in Khouribga.