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UTS Rabat vs Olympique Khouribga — Botola 2 2025

UTS Rabat
UTS Rabat
FT
2 – 3
Olympique Khouribga
Olympique Khouribga
1/29/2021Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 8Stade du FUS

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

UTS Rabat44%
×Draw27%
Olympique Khouribga30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UTS Rabat
1.40
Olympique Khouribga
1.11

UTS Rabat creates 26% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

UTS Rabat
1.47
Olympique Khouribga
1.00

allows per match

UTS Rabat
1.23
Olympique Khouribga
1.33

finishing

UTS Rabat+0.00on par
Olympique Khouribga+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UTS Rabat ↓

Olympique Khouribga →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

UTS Rabat or draw
70%
UTS Rabat or Olympique Khouribga
73%
Draw or Olympique Khouribga
56%

Winning margin

UTS Rabat wins by 2+
21%
Olympique Khouribga wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UTS Rabat 1+ goals
75%
UTS Rabat 2+ goals
41%
UTS Rabat 3+ goals
17%
Olympique Khouribga 1+ goals
67%
Olympique Khouribga 2+ goals
30%
Olympique Khouribga 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

UTS Rabat (draw refunded)
59%
Olympique Khouribga (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UTS Rabat at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

Olympique Khouribga away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.33 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UTS Rabat attack 1.47 + Olympique Khouribga defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.40

Olympique Khouribga attack 1.00 + UTS Rabat defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

UTS Rabat scores more
44%
level
27%
Olympique Khouribga scores more
30%

UTS Rabat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "UTS Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UTS Rabat vs Olympique Khouribga

Olympique Khouribga beat UTS Rabat 3-2 in Botola 2 on January 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stade du FUS in Rabat.