Uthai Thani 7–0 Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Uthai Thani

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Bruno Baio 79', 49', 43'

C. Mbah 68'

M. Eisa 31', 12'

B. Davis 16'

11/29/2025

League #296 · Round 13Uthai Thani Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Uthai Thani57%

×Draw22%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Uthai ThaniExpected goals in this matchNakhon Ratchasima FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.06

Uthai Thani

1.90

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.06

Uthai Thani creates 79% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 24 away

2.22

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Uthai Thani

2.22

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.00

allows per match

Uthai Thani

1.11

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Uthai Thani+0.00on par

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uthai Thani ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Uthai Thani or draw

79%

Uthai Thani or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

78%

Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC

43%

Winning margin

Uthai Thani wins by 2+

33%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Uthai Thani 1+ goals

85%

Uthai Thani 2+ goals

56%

Uthai Thani 3+ goals

29%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

65%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

29%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)

73%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uthai Thani at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uthai Thani attack 2.22 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.90

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.00 + Uthai Thani defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Uthai Thani scores more

57%

level

22%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

21%

Uthai Thani at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

72

Bruno Baio

Uthai Thani · F

10.0

Match Events

-5'

Wendel

12'

M. Eisa↳ H. Stewart

16'

B. Davis

24'

P. Jeenthai← A. Jaiphet

31'

M. Eisa↳ H. Stewart

43'

Bruno Baio

45+6'

Hirotaka Mita

46'

R. Bangsungnoen←

49'

Bruno Baio↳ B. Davis

52'

Dennis MurilloPenalty cancelled

57'

Ben Davis

63'

L. James← W. Weidersjo

64'

C. Mbah← M. Eisa

66'

T. Athisaraworameth← Brandao

68'

C. Mbah↳ Bruno Baio

71'

D. Meleg← Martinez Viti

72'

A. Gountounas← J. Beresford

72'

S. Purisay← B. Davis

79'

N. Naksawat← C. Gomis

79'

Bruno Baio

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UthaiNakhon

Overview

63%Possession37%

25Total Shots9

7Corners4

10Fouls9

Shots

25Total Shots9

15On Target4

4Off Target4

6Blocked1

22Inside Box8

3Outside Box1

Passing

63%Possession37%

505Total Passes290

446Accurate Passes223

88%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves8

Discipline

10Fouls9

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1