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Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC — League #296 2026

Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
J. Agudelo 73' (pen)
G. Houla 90+1'
8/28/2024League #296League #296 · Round 4Uthai Thani Province Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Uthai Thani57%
×Draw22%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Uthai Thani
1.90
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.06

Uthai Thani creates 79% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 24 away

creates per match

Uthai Thani
2.22
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.00

allows per match

Uthai Thani
1.11
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.58

finishing

Uthai Thani+0.00on par
Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Uthai Thani ↓

Nakhon Ratchasima FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Uthai Thani or draw
79%
Uthai Thani or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
78%
Draw or Nakhon Ratchasima FC
43%

Winning margin

Uthai Thani wins by 2+
33%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Uthai Thani 1+ goals
85%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
56%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
29%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals
65%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals
29%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
73%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Uthai Thani at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Uthai Thani attack 2.22 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.90

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.00 + Uthai Thani defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Uthai Thani scores more
57%
level
22%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more
21%

Uthai Thani at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Uthai Thani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
W. WeidersjoeUthai ThaniUthai Thani · M
8.0

Match Events

62'
J. Agudelo← Ricardo Santos
62'
N. Noomchansakul← C. Laptrakul
64'
S. Kunmee← S. Romphopak
64'
W. Nueangprakaew← A. Sanjairag
68'
Jhonatan AgudeloPenalty confirmed
71'
William Weidersjö
71'
Deyvison Fernandes
73'
J. AgudeloPenalty
74'
T. Plodkeaw← T. Paibulkijcharoen
74'
N. Jaroenbut← W. Jiraphaksiri
75'
Greg Houla
83'
T. Rattanapoom← T. Antonis
83'
W. Sawatlakhorn← Lucas Dias
85'
A. Mungdee← N. Biesamrit
90+4'
D. Smart← B. Davis
90+1'
G. Houla

Possession

70%Uthai

Shots

19Uthai

Pass accuracy

55%Uthai

Statistics

UthaiNakhon
Overview
70%Possession30%
19Total Shots9
12Corners3
8Fouls7
Shots
19Total Shots9
5On Target3
9Off Target3
5Blocked3
10Inside Box5
9Outside Box4
Passing
70%Possession30%
474Total Passes204
420Accurate Passes146
89%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
8Fouls7
1Yellow Cards2
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC

Uthai Thani and Nakhon Ratchasima FC drew 1-1 in League #296 on August 28, 2024.

Goals: J. Agudelo (73' pen), G. Houla (90+1').

Uthai Thani controlled possession (70%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Uthai Thani.