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Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani — League #296 2026

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FC
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Uthai Thani
Uthai Thani
Dudu Lima 79'
Dennis Murillo 39' (pen)
G. Houla 17'
N. Ansell 73' (OG)
Aung Thu 10'
1/19/2025League #296League #296 · Round 18His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC50%
×Draw25%
Uthai Thani25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.61
Uthai Thani
1.06

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 11 away

creates per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.31
Uthai Thani
0.82

allows per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC
1.31
Uthai Thani
1.91

finishing

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par
Uthai Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Ratchasima FC ↓

Uthai Thani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or draw
75%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Uthai Thani
75%
Draw or Uthai Thani
50%

Winning margin

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+
26%
Uthai Thani wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals
80%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals
48%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals
22%
Uthai Thani 1+ goals
65%
Uthai Thani 2+ goals
29%
Uthai Thani 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)
67%
Uthai Thani (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Uthai Thani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.31 + Uthai Thani defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.61

Uthai Thani attack 0.82 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more
50%
level
25%
Uthai Thani scores more
25%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

36
T. NoorachNakhon Ratchasima FCNakhon Ratchasima FC · G
7.9

Match Events

7'
C. Charalampous← J. Schwabe
10'
Aung Thu↳ Tiago Alves
17'
G. Houla
36'
Dennis MurilloGoal confirmed
37'
Thitathorn Aksornsri
39'
Dennis MurilloPenalty
43'
Charalampos Charalampous
46'
Dudu Lima← Dennis Murillo
60'
T. Antonis← T. Rattanapoom
61'
Ricardo Santos← Tiago Alves
73'
N. AnsellOwn goal
77'
Greg Houla
77'
T. Kaosaart← N. Jaroenbut
79'
Dudu Lima↳ Deyvison Fernandes
82'
B. Duronjić← Lucas Dias
82'
D. Darbellay← B. Davis
85'
Lee Jong-Cheon← Deyvison Fernandes
86'
Aung Thu
89'
Weerawat Jiraphaksiri
90+5'
T. Plodkeaw← S. Yapp

Possession

30%Nakhon

Shots

7Nakhon

Pass accuracy

44%Nakhon

Statistics

NakhonUthai
Overview
30%Possession70%
7Total Shots16
3Corners5
8Fouls15
Shots
7Total Shots16
4On Target7
2Off Target4
1Blocked5
3Inside Box7
4Outside Box9
Passing
30%Possession70%
256Total Passes593
178Accurate Passes530
70%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
8Fouls15
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani

Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Uthai Thani 3-2 in League #296 on January 19, 2025.

Goals: Aung Thu (10'), G. Houla (17'), Dennis Murillo (39' pen), N. Ansell (73' o.g.), Dudu Lima (79').

Uthai Thani controlled possession (70%) and registered 16 shots to 7.

The match was played at His Majesty the King's 80th Birthday Anniversary 5th December 2007 Stadium in Nakhon Ratchasima.