Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0–0 Uthai Thani

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Uthai Thani

4/5/2026

League #296 · Round 2780th Birthday Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Nakhon Ratchasima FC50%

×Draw25%

Uthai Thani25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon Ratchasima FCExpected goals in this matchUthai Thani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.06

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.61

Uthai Thani

1.06

Nakhon Ratchasima FC creates 52% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 11 away

1.31

creates per match

0.82

1.31

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.31

Uthai Thani

0.82

allows per match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC

1.31

Uthai Thani

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Ratchasima FC+0.00on par

Uthai Thani+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Ratchasima FC ↓

Uthai Thani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or draw

75%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC or Uthai Thani

75%

Draw or Uthai Thani

50%

Winning margin

Nakhon Ratchasima FC wins by 2+

26%

Uthai Thani wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 1+ goals

80%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 2+ goals

48%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC 3+ goals

22%

Uthai Thani 1+ goals

65%

Uthai Thani 2+ goals

29%

Uthai Thani 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Ratchasima FC (draw refunded)

67%

Uthai Thani (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

Uthai Thani away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 1.31 + Uthai Thani defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.61

Uthai Thani attack 0.82 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nakhon Ratchasima FC scores more

50%

level

25%

Uthai Thani scores more

25%

Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

W. Weidersjo

Uthai Thani · M

7.7

Match Events

19'

Danai Smart

32'

Pongsakron Hanrattana

45+2'

Win Hein Phyo← R. Bangsungnoen

46'

N. Naksawat← D. Smart

54'

N. Jaroenbut← P. Hanrattana

57'

59'

65'

66'

69'

74'

77'

W. Nuengprakaew← L. James

77'

J. Becerra← N. Lalic

82'

Kelvin

84'

Thitathorn Aksornsri

89'

Leandro Ribeiro← Kelvin

89'

S. Purisay← T. Auksornsri

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NakhonUthai

Overview

45%Possession55%

9Total Shots8

2Corners4

18Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots8

3On Target4

3Off Target2

3Blocked2

6Inside Box4

3Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

321Total Passes400

246Accurate Passes327

77%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

18Fouls10

4Yellow Cards4

0Offsides4

League #296: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0–0 Uthai Thani

Nakhon Ratchasima FC and Uthai Thani drew 0-0 in League #296 on April 5, 2026.

Uthai Thani controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at 80th Birthday Stadium in Nakhon Ratchasima.

Nakhon Ratchasima FC vs Uthai Thani — League #296 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League #296: Nakhon Ratchasima FC 0–0 Uthai Thani