Uthai Thani vs Nakhon Ratchasima FC — FA Cup 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
Uthai Thani34%
Nakhon Ratchasima FC40%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 6 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes54
- No46
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Uthai Thani ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Uthai Thani at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches
Nakhon Ratchasima FC away — creates 2.09, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Uthai Thani attack 2.00 + Nakhon Ratchasima FC defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.27
Nakhon Ratchasima FC attack 2.09 + Uthai Thani defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.38
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Nakhon Ratchasima FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Nakhon Ratchasima FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Uthai Thani substitutes
Nakhon Ratchasima FC substitutes
Head to Head
Uthai Thani host Nakhon Ratchasima FC on Wednesday, 16 February 2022 at 11:00. The match is part of the FA Cup 2018/2019 season.
FA Cup: Uthai Thani 0–1 Nakhon Ratchasima FC
Nakhon Ratchasima FC beat Uthai Thani 1-0 in FA Cup on February 16, 2022.
Goals: C. Clough (86').
The match was played at Uthai Thani Province Stadium in Uthai Thani.