Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Urawa vs Albirex Niigata — J1 League 2018

Urawa
Urawa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
Matheus Savio 30'
8/31/2025J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 28Saitama Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Urawa43%
×Draw27%
Albirex Niigata30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Urawa
1.34
Albirex Niigata
1.08

Urawa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Urawa
1.35
Albirex Niigata
0.96

allows per match

Urawa
1.20
Albirex Niigata
1.33

finishing

Urawa+0.18scores more
Albirex Niigata-0.20scores less

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Albirex Niigata →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Urawa or draw
70%
Urawa or Albirex Niigata
73%
Draw or Albirex Niigata
57%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+
20%
Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals
74%
Urawa 2+ goals
39%
Urawa 3+ goals
15%
Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
66%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
29%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)
59%
Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 19 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.35 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Albirex Niigata attack 0.96 + Urawa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Urawa scores more
43%
level
27%
Albirex Niigata scores more
30%

Urawa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
Matheus SavioUrawaUrawa · M
8.3

Match Events

30'
Matheus Savio↳ T. Kaneko
42'
Matheus Sávio
59'
T. Matsumoto← S. Gustafson
59'
Y. Matsuo← S. Nakajima
64'
T. Shimamura← Moraes
76'
K. Hashimoto← Y. Horigome
76'
J. Okumura← M. Ohara
76'
K. Taniguchi← H. Uemura
81'
K. Shibato← K. Yasui
81'
Y. Naganuma← T. Ogiwara
86'
Y. Takagi← M. Hasegawa
88'
T. Sekine← T. Kaneko
90+5'
Michael James Fitzgerald

Possession

49%Urawa

Shots

14Urawa

Pass accuracy

51%Urawa

Statistics

UrawaAlbirex
Overview
49%Possession51%
14Total Shots17
0.81Expected Goals (xG)1.69
1Corners9
9Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots17
5On Target4
4Off Target10
5Blocked3
8Inside Box10
6Outside Box7
Passing
49%Possession51%
449Total Passes452
400Accurate Passes393
89%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls11
1Yellow Cards1

Match Recap: Urawa vs Albirex Niigata

Urawa beat Albirex Niigata 1-0 in J1 League on August 31, 2025.

Goals: Matheus Savio (30').

Albirex Niigata controlled possession (51%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Saitama Stadium in Saitama.