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Albirex Niigata vs Urawa — J1 League 2018

Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Urawa
Urawa
M. Nagakura 87'
S. Ota 75'
Thiago Santana 90+12' (pen), 4'
N. Maeda 69'
S. Gustafson 65'
5/11/2024J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 13Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Albirex Niigata40%
×Draw26%
Urawa34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albirex Niigata
1.39
Urawa
1.28

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 19 away

creates per match

Albirex Niigata
1.35
Urawa
1.13

allows per match

Albirex Niigata
1.44
Urawa
1.42

finishing

Albirex Niigata-0.30scores less
Urawa+0.08on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Urawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw
66%
Albirex Niigata or Urawa
74%
Draw or Urawa
60%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
18%
Urawa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
75%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
40%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
16%
Urawa 1+ goals
72%
Urawa 2+ goals
37%
Urawa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
53%
Urawa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.44 · 21 matches

Urawa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.35 + Urawa defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.39

Urawa attack 1.13 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more
40%
level
26%
Urawa scores more
34%

Albirex Niigata at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Albirex Niigata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
Thiago SantanaUrawaUrawa · F
9.2

Match Events

4'
Thiago Santana↳ R. Watanabe
46'
A. Ohata← T. Okubo
51'
Y. Komi← M. Hasegawa
55'
Yuji OnoGoal cancelled
65'
S. Gustafson↳ R. Watanabe
66'
K. Taniguchi← E. Matsuda
66'
S. Ota← Y. Ono
66'
K. Yasui← A. Ito
66'
Y. Koizumi← S. Nakajima
69'
N. Maeda↳ Thiago Santana
75'
Y. Hoshi← F. Hayakawa
75'
J. Okumura← Y. Shimada
75'
S. Ota
82'
Soya Fujiwara
82'
E. Panya← N. Maeda
87'
M. Nagakura↳ M. Fitzgerald
90+2'
Y. Sato← S. Gustafson
90+12'
2 Thiago SantanaPenalty

Possession

52%Albirex

Shots

19Albirex

Pass accuracy

51%Albirex

Statistics

AlbirexUrawa
Overview
52%Possession48%
19Total Shots10
2.16Expected Goals (xG)1.76
6Corners1
15Fouls4
Shots
19Total Shots10
9On Target6
6Off Target2
4Blocked2
14Inside Box7
5Outside Box3
Passing
52%Possession48%
565Total Passes546
507Accurate Passes474
90%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
15Fouls4
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides3

Match Recap: Albirex Niigata vs Urawa

Urawa beat Albirex Niigata 4-2 in J1 League on May 11, 2024.

Goals: Thiago Santana (4'), S. Gustafson (65'), N. Maeda (69'), S. Ota (75'), M. Nagakura (87'), 2 Thiago Santana (90+12' pen).

Albirex Niigata controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 10.

The match was played at Denka Big Swan Stadium in Niigata.