Urawa 0–0 Albirex Niigata: Result & Stats

Urawa

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Albirex Niigata

12/8/2024

J1 League · Round 38Saitama Stadium 2002

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Urawa43%

×Draw27%

Albirex Niigata30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

UrawaExpected goals in this matchAlbirex Niigata

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.08

Urawa

1.34

Albirex Niigata

1.08

Urawa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

1.35

creates per match

0.96

1.20

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Urawa

1.35

Albirex Niigata

0.96

allows per match

Urawa

1.20

Albirex Niigata

1.33

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Urawa+0.18scores more

Albirex Niigata-0.20scores less

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Urawa ↓

Albirex Niigata →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Urawa or draw

70%

Urawa or Albirex Niigata

73%

Draw or Albirex Niigata

57%

Winning margin

Urawa wins by 2+

20%

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Urawa 1+ goals

74%

Urawa 2+ goals

39%

Urawa 3+ goals

15%

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

66%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

29%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Urawa (draw refunded)

59%

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Urawa at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.20 · 19 matches

Albirex Niigata away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Urawa attack 1.35 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.34

Albirex Niigata attack 0.96 + Urawa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Urawa scores more

43%

level

27%

Albirex Niigata scores more

30%

Urawa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Urawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

R. Inoue

Urawa · D

7.9

Match Events

12'

Shinzo Koroki

57'

M. Nagakura← Y. Ono

58'

Danilo Gomes← K. Taniguchi

58'

Y. Komi← S. Ota

62'

B. Linssen← S. Koroki

71'

H. Ishihara← N. Maeda

71'

Y. Koizumi← S. Gustafson

73'

Michael James Fitzgerald

80'

T. Ugajin← T. Sekine

80'

R. Nitta← G. Haraguchi

90'

K. Hashimoto← Y. Horigome

90'

T. Deng← M. Fitzgerald

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UrawaAlbirex

Overview

60%Possession40%

9Total Shots5

0.94Expected Goals (xG)0.16

5Corners4

6Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots5

4On Target0

1Off Target4

4Blocked1

4Inside Box3

5Outside Box2

Passing

60%Possession40%

709Total Passes471

627Accurate Passes389

88%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0