Albirex Niigata 1–1 Urawa: Result & Stats

Albirex Niigata

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Urawa

M. Hasegawa 74'

M. Nagakura 80'

5/11/2025

J1 League · Round 16Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Albirex Niigata39%

×Draw26%

Urawa35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Albirex NiigataExpected goals in this matchUrawa

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.26

Albirex Niigata

1.36

Urawa

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 17 away

1.33

creates per match

1.09

1.43

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Albirex Niigata

1.33

Urawa

1.09

allows per match

Albirex Niigata

1.43

Urawa

1.40

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Albirex Niigata-0.33scores less

Urawa-0.03on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Urawa →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw

65%

Albirex Niigata or Urawa

74%

Draw or Urawa

61%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+

18%

Urawa wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals

74%

Albirex Niigata 2+ goals

39%

Albirex Niigata 3+ goals

16%

Urawa 1+ goals

72%

Urawa 2+ goals

36%

Urawa 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)

53%

Urawa (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.43 · 19 matches

Urawa away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.40 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.33 + Urawa defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.36

Urawa attack 1.09 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more

39%

level

26%

Urawa scores more

35%

Albirex Niigata at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Albirex Niigata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

H. Ishihara

Urawa · D

7.9

Match Events

29'

Ryoma Watanabe

60'

Keisuke Kasai

64'

Y. Komi← K. Kasai

64'

G. Haraguchi← Matheus Savio

64'

S. Nakajima← R. Watanabe

64'

T. Okubo← T. Kaneko

74'

M. Hasegawa

78'

Danilo Gomes

78'

T. Ogiwara← Y. Naganuma

78'

M. Nagakura← T. Matsumoto

80'

M. Nagakura↳ H. Ishihara

86'

Y. Horigome← K. Hashimoto

86'

E. Miyamoto← Y. Hoshi

86'

K. Yamura← Danilo Gomes

90'

Taiki Arai

90+1'

Y. Takagi← M. Hasegawa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlbirexUrawa

Overview

54%Possession46%

11Total Shots10

1.58Expected Goals (xG)1.01

5Corners3

9Fouls8

Shots

11Total Shots10

4On Target2

2Off Target3

5Blocked5

6Inside Box5

5Outside Box5

Passing

54%Possession46%

582Total Passes502

496Accurate Passes425

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls8

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1