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Albirex Niigata vs Urawa — J1 League 2018

Albirex Niigata
Albirex Niigata
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Urawa
Urawa
Y. Komi 81'
A. Scholz 38' (pen)
9/2/2023J1 LeagueJ1 League · Round 26Denka Big Swan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 18+ matches

Albirex Niigata39%
×Draw26%
Urawa35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Albirex Niigata
1.34
Urawa
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 18 away

creates per match

Albirex Niigata
1.31
Urawa
1.10

allows per match

Albirex Niigata
1.42
Urawa
1.38

finishing

Albirex Niigata-0.31scores less
Urawa-0.04on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Albirex Niigata ↓

Urawa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Albirex Niigata or draw
65%
Albirex Niigata or Urawa
74%
Draw or Urawa
61%

Winning margin

Albirex Niigata wins by 2+
18%
Urawa wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Albirex Niigata 1+ goals
74%
Albirex Niigata 2+ goals
39%
Albirex Niigata 3+ goals
15%
Urawa 1+ goals
72%
Urawa 2+ goals
36%
Urawa 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Albirex Niigata (draw refunded)
53%
Urawa (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Albirex Niigata at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.42 · 20 matches

Urawa away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.38 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Albirex Niigata attack 1.31 + Urawa defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.34

Urawa attack 1.10 + Albirex Niigata defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Albirex Niigata scores more
39%
level
26%
Urawa scores more
35%

Albirex Niigata at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Albirex Niigata will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
A. ScholzUrawaUrawa · D
7.7

Match Events

22'
K. Yasui← T. Okubo
35'
Takahiro SekinePenalty confirmed
38'
A. ScholzPenalty
73'
S. Mito← Y. Takagi
73'
Y. Komi← K. Suzuki
73'
H. Akiyama← Y. Shimada
78'
A. Schalk← Y. Koizumi
78'
S. Koroki← J. Kanté
79'
E. Matsuda← T. Hasegawa
81'
Y. Komi
87'
A. Ohata← T. Sekine
90+6'
Hiroki Akiyama

Possession

63%Albirex

Shots

9Albirex

Pass accuracy

54%Albirex

Statistics

AlbirexUrawa
Overview
63%Possession37%
9Total Shots8
0.96Expected Goals (xG)1.34
4Corners2
10Fouls8
Shots
9Total Shots8
3On Target2
5Off Target3
1Blocked3
5Inside Box5
4Outside Box3
Passing
63%Possession37%
601Total Passes348
521Accurate Passes260
87%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls8
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Albirex Niigata vs Urawa

Albirex Niigata and Urawa drew 1-1 in J1 League on September 2, 2023.

Goals: A. Scholz (38' pen), Y. Komi (81').

Albirex Niigata controlled possession (63%) and registered 9 shots to 8.

The match was played at Denka Big Swan Stadium in Niigata.