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Universitatea Cluj vs CFR 1907 Cluj — Liga I 2026

Universitatea Cluj
Universitatea Cluj
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
CFR 1907 Cluj
CFR 1907 Cluj
O. Mendy 90'
J. Lukic 4'
L. Biliboc 1'
3/16/2026Liga ILiga I · Championship Group - 1Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Universitatea Cluj37%
×Draw26%
CFR 1907 Cluj36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Universitatea Cluj
1.31
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 8 away

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.32
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.58

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj
1.00
CFR 1907 Cluj
1.31

finishing

Universitatea Cluj+0.13scores more
CFR 1907 Cluj-0.58scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw
64%
Universitatea Cluj or CFR 1907 Cluj
74%
Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj
63%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+
17%
CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals
73%
Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
38%
Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals
14%
CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals
72%
CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals
37%
CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)
51%
CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.58, concedes 1.31 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.32 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.31

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.58 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more
37%
level
26%
CFR 1907 Cluj scores more
36%

Universitatea Cluj at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29
O. MendyUniversitatea ClujUniversitatea Cluj · F
8.5

Match Events

1'
L. Biliboc↳ M. Korenica
4'
J. Lukic↳ O. Mendy
44'
Dino Mikanović
44'
Mário Camora
59'
Meriton Korenica
65'
Ovidiu Bic
65'
A. Paun← A. Cordea
73'
J. Stanojev← D. Nistor
82'
O. El Sawy← A. Chintes
85'
Jovo Lukić
88'
Mouhamadou Drammeh
88'
Mouhamadou DrammehGoal cancelled
88'
I. Slimani← A. Aliev
90+5'
A. Gheorghita← O. Mendy
90'
O. Mendy↳ I. Macalou

Possession

61%Universitatea

Shots

12Universitatea

Pass accuracy

55%Universitatea

Statistics

UniversitateaCFR
Overview
61%Possession39%
12Total Shots14
1.70Expected Goals (xG)1.10
7Corners4
10Fouls9
Shots
12Total Shots14
6On Target3
5Off Target7
1Blocked4
10Inside Box7
2Outside Box7
Passing
61%Possession39%
494Total Passes312
424Accurate Passes221
86%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls9
4Yellow Cards2

Liga I: Universitatea Cluj 2–1 CFR 1907 Cluj

Universitatea Cluj beat CFR 1907 Cluj 2-1 in Liga I on March 16, 2026.

Goals: L. Biliboc (1'), J. Lukic (4'), O. Mendy (90').

Universitatea Cluj controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 14.

The match was played at Cluj Arena in Cluj-Napoca.