Universitatea Cluj 2–2 CFR 1907 Cluj

Universitatea Cluj

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

CFR 1907 Cluj

J. Lukic 37'

D. Mikanovic 34'

L. Biliboc 58'

D. Djokovic 9'

9/29/2025

Liga I · Round 11Cluj Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Universitatea Cluj33%

×Draw27%

CFR 1907 Cluj40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Universitatea ClujExpected goals in this matchCFR 1907 Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.33

Universitatea Cluj

1.18

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.33

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 7 away

1.10

creates per match

1.65

1.02

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.10

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.65

allows per match

Universitatea Cluj

1.02

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.25

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.65scores less than expected

finishing

Universitatea Cluj-0.10scores less

CFR 1907 Cluj-0.65scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Universitatea Cluj ↓

CFR 1907 Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Universitatea Cluj or draw

60%

Universitatea Cluj or CFR 1907 Cluj

73%

Draw or CFR 1907 Cluj

67%

Winning margin

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

14%

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

69%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

33%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

12%

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

74%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

38%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

45%

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Universitatea Cluj at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.02 · 8 matches

CFR 1907 Cluj away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.25 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.10 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.65 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Universitatea Cluj scores more

33%

level

27%

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

40%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Nistor

Universitatea Cluj · M

8.2

Match Events

9'

D. Djokovic↳ A. Cordea

33'

Karlo Muhar

34'

D. Mikanovic↳ D. Nistor

37'

J. Lukic↳ D. Nistor

46'

M. Korenica← D. Djokovic

46'

L. Emerllahu← A. Cordea

48'

Jovo Lukić

58'

L. Biliboc↳ L. Emerllahu

65'

D. Codrea← M. Drammeh

65'

A. Bota← O. El Sawy

69'

I. Macalou← V. Postolachi

71'

A. Fica← K. Muhar

76'

M. Silva← A. Chipciu

76'

A. Fabry← D. Nistor

76'

V. Kun← L. Biliboc

88'

I. Cernigoi← L. Munteanu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

UniversitateaCFR

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots8

0.55Expected Goals (xG)0.52

4Corners7

13Fouls11

Shots

11Total Shots8

2On Target3

4Off Target3

5Blocked2

9Inside Box6

2Outside Box2

Passing

49%Possession51%

430Total Passes441

361Accurate Passes356

84%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

13Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

Liga I: Universitatea Cluj 2–2 CFR 1907 Cluj

Universitatea Cluj and CFR 1907 Cluj drew 2-2 in Liga I on September 29, 2025.

Goals: D. Djokovic (9'), D. Mikanovic (34'), J. Lukic (37'), L. Biliboc (58').

CFR 1907 Cluj controlled possession (51%) and registered 8 shots to 11.

The match was played at Cluj Arena in Cluj-Napoca.

Universitatea Cluj vs CFR 1907 Cluj — Liga I 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga I: Universitatea Cluj 2–2 CFR 1907 Cluj