CFR 1907 Cluj 1–0 Universitatea Cluj

CFR 1907 Cluj

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Universitatea Cluj

4/25/2026

Liga I · Championship Group - 6Dr. Constantin Radulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj35%

×Draw26%

Universitatea Cluj39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR 1907 ClujExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.39

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.31

Universitatea Cluj

1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

1.22

creates per match

1.65

1.12

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.22

Universitatea Cluj

1.65

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.12

Universitatea Cluj

1.41

-0.22scores less than expected

finishing

+0.25scores more than expected

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj-0.22scores less

Universitatea Cluj+0.25scores more

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

Universitatea Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw

61%

CFR 1907 Cluj or Universitatea Cluj

74%

Draw or Universitatea Cluj

65%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

16%

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

73%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

38%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

14%

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

75%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

40%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

48%

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.12 · 5 matches

Universitatea Cluj away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.22 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.31

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.65 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

35%

level

26%

Universitatea Cluj scores more

39%

Universitatea Cluj at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Universitatea Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff