CFR 1907 Cluj 1–0 Universitatea Cluj

CFR 1907 Cluj

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Universitatea Cluj

M. Korenica 35'

5/3/2025

Liga I · Championship Round - 7Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

CFR 1907 Cluj41%

×Draw25%

Universitatea Cluj34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CFR 1907 ClujExpected goals in this matchUniversitatea Cluj

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.35

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.52

Universitatea Cluj

1.35

CFR 1907 Cluj creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 12 away

1.58

creates per match

1.62

1.09

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.58

Universitatea Cluj

1.62

allows per match

CFR 1907 Cluj

1.09

Universitatea Cluj

1.47

+0.09on par

finishing

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

CFR 1907 Cluj+0.09on par

Universitatea Cluj+0.13scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CFR 1907 Cluj ↓

Universitatea Cluj →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

CFR 1907 Cluj or draw

66%

CFR 1907 Cluj or Universitatea Cluj

75%

Draw or Universitatea Cluj

59%

Winning margin

CFR 1907 Cluj wins by 2+

20%

Universitatea Cluj wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

CFR 1907 Cluj 1+ goals

78%

CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals

45%

CFR 1907 Cluj 3+ goals

20%

Universitatea Cluj 1+ goals

74%

Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals

39%

Universitatea Cluj 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

CFR 1907 Cluj (draw refunded)

55%

Universitatea Cluj (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.09 · 9 matches

Universitatea Cluj away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.47 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.58 + Universitatea Cluj defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Universitatea Cluj attack 1.62 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

CFR 1907 Cluj scores more

41%

level

25%

Universitatea Cluj scores more

34%

CFR 1907 Cluj at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

Léo Bolgado

CFR 1907 Cluj · D

7.9

Match Events

20'

D. Oancea← O. Bic

35'

M. Korenica↳ L. Munteanu

52'

Damjan Đoković

59'

Dorin Codrea

61'

I. Macalou← D. Codrea

62'

A. Fábry← D. Nistor

66'

Dorinel Oancea

74'

Simão Rocha← M. Camora

74'

B. Nkololo← M. Kamara

84'

V. Postolachi← M. Korenica

84'

90+11'

90+8'

90+8'

90+6'

90+11'

90+11'

90+9'

90+6'

90+1'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CFRUniversitatea

Overview

35%Possession65%

9Total Shots8

1.90Expected Goals (xG)0.15

6Corners4

8Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots8

1On Target2

4Off Target3

4Blocked3

7Inside Box3

2Outside Box5

Passing

35%Possession65%

262Total Passes500

171Accurate Passes413

65%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls13

5Yellow Cards6

4Offsides0

Match Recap: CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Cluj

CFR 1907 Cluj beat Universitatea Cluj 1-0 in Liga I on May 3, 2025.

Goals: M. Korenica (35').

Universitatea Cluj controlled possession (65%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadionul Dr. Constantin Rădulescu in Cluj-Napoca.

CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Cluj — Liga I 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: CFR 1907 Cluj vs Universitatea Cluj