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Tshakhuma Madzivhadila vs Mamelodi Sundowns — Premier Soccer League 2018

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
P. Shalulile 90', 78'
P. Šafranko 87'
T. Zwane 24'
11/7/2021Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 8Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila22%
×Draw29%
Mamelodi Sundowns49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.4%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.75
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.27

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 69% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 123 away

creates per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
0.86
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.53

allows per match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila
1.01
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.64

finishing

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or draw
51%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila or Mamelodi Sundowns
71%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
78%

Winning margin

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila wins by 2+
6%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 1+ goals
53%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 2+ goals
17%
Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 3+ goals
4%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
72%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
36%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila (draw refunded)
31%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.53, concedes 0.64 · 123 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila attack 0.86 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.75

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.53 + Tshakhuma Madzivhadila defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Tshakhuma Madzivhadila scores more
22%
level
29%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
49%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
Khuliso Mudau
9'
T. Morena← K. Mudau
24'
T. Zwane↳ P. Shalulile
36'
S. Ntshangase← L. Koapeng
36'
C. Ngema← N. Ndlondlo
45+2'
Mpho Mvelase
55'
Celimpilo Ngema
73'
Grant Kekana
78'
P. Shalulile↳ N. Maema
83'
K. Otladisa← T. Mnyamane
87'
M. Mvala← S. Mkhulise
87'
P. Šafranko
90'
P. Shalulile↳ T. Zwane

Possession

35%Tshakhuma

Shots

7Tshakhuma

Statistics

TshakhumaMamelodi
Overview
35%Possession65%
7Total Shots14
1Corners3
14Fouls11
Shots
7Total Shots14
2On Target5
5Off Target9
Passing
35%Possession65%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls11
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Premier Soccer League: Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 0–4 Mamelodi Sundowns

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Tshakhuma Madzivhadila 4-0 in Premier Soccer League on November 7, 2021.

Goals: T. Zwane (24'), P. Shalulile (78', 90'), P. Šafranko (87').

Mamelodi Sundowns controlled possession (65%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.