Marumo Gallants 1–3 Mamelodi Sundowns

Marumo Gallants

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Mamelodi Sundowns

Sede Junior Dion 37'

Iqraam Rayners 81'

Lucas Ribeiro 79'

Marcelo Allende 51'

2/19/2025

Premier Soccer League · Round 14Dr. Petrus Molemela Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Marumo Gallants22%

×Draw29%

Mamelodi Sundowns49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marumo GallantsExpected goals in this matchMamelodi Sundowns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

1.27

Marumo Gallants

0.74

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.27

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 72% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 119 away

0.86

creates per match

1.54

1.01

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Marumo Gallants

0.86

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.54

allows per match

Marumo Gallants

1.01

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–117%

0–211%

0–35%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw

51%

Marumo Gallants or Mamelodi Sundowns

71%

Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns

78%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

6%

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

52%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

17%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

4%

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

72%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

36%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

31%

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.74

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.54 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more

22%

level

29%

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

49%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Iqraam Rayners

Mamelodi Sundowns · F

8.9

Match Events

14'

Masindi Nemtajela

34'

Sekela Sithole

34'

Teboho Mokoena

37'

Sede Junior Dion↳ Daniel Msendami

46'

Thapelo Mokobodi← Sekela Sithole

51'

Marcelo Allende↳ Iqraam Rayners

55'

Gabadinho Mhango← Sede Junior Dion

56'

Daniel Msendami

58'

Grant Kekana

63'

Arthur Sales← Peter Shalulile

74'

Keanu Cupido← Grant Kekana

74'

Asekho Tiwani← Jayden Adams

75'

Sphelele Mkhulise← Aubrey Modiba

79'

Lucas Ribeiro↳ Arthur Sales

81'

Iqraam Rayners

82'

Bathusi Aubaas← Lucas Ribeiro

89'

90+6'

90'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MarumoMamelodi

Overview

32%Possession68%

11Total Shots17

0Corners6

13Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots17

3On Target9

5Off Target8

3Blocked0

4Inside Box7

7Outside Box10

Passing

32%Possession68%

284Total Passes622

207Accurate Passes535

73%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls12

4Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides3