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Marumo Gallants vs Mamelodi Sundowns — Premier Soccer League 2018

Marumo Gallants
Marumo Gallants
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
K. Cupido 35' (OG)
I. Rayners 28'
9/17/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 6Thohoyandou Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Marumo Gallants22%
×Draw29%
Mamelodi Sundowns49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Marumo Gallants
0.74
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.27

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 72% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 119 away

creates per match

Marumo Gallants
0.86
Mamelodi Sundowns
1.54

allows per match

Marumo Gallants
1.01
Mamelodi Sundowns
0.62

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par
Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–117%
0–211%
0–35%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw
51%
Marumo Gallants or Mamelodi Sundowns
71%
Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns
78%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+
6%
Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals
52%
Marumo Gallants 2+ goals
17%
Marumo Gallants 3+ goals
4%
Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
72%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
36%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)
31%
Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.74

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.54 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more
22%
level
29%
Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
49%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
R. WilliamsMamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns · G
7.3

Match Events

28'
I. Rayners↳ M. Allende
34'
Divine Lunga
35'
K. CupidoOwn goal
46'
A. Modiba← D. Lunga
46'
T. Matthews← I. Rayners
61'
K. Lethlaku← J. Adams
70'
T. Motloung← B. Mabuza
70'
K. Mudau← T. Morena
76'
L. Mothiba← Arthur Sales
86'
J. Clifford← D. Msendami
86'
K. Sithole← N. Ndlondlo
87'
Siyabonga Nhlapo
89'
Kutlwano Letlhaku
90+4'
E. Manaka← S. Sithole
90+4'
K. Mhlongo← S. Nhlapo

Possession

29%Marumo

Shots

9Marumo

Pass accuracy

44%Marumo

Statistics

MarumoMamelodi
Overview
29%Possession71%
9Total Shots14
1Corners4
7Fouls18
Shots
9Total Shots14
4On Target6
3Off Target4
2Blocked4
5Inside Box8
4Outside Box6
Passing
29%Possession71%
247Total Passes621
172Accurate Passes548
70%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
5Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls18
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Premier Soccer League: Marumo Gallants 1–1 Mamelodi Sundowns

Marumo Gallants and Mamelodi Sundowns drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on September 17, 2025.

Goals: I. Rayners (28'), K. Cupido (35' o.g.).

Mamelodi Sundowns controlled possession (71%) and registered 14 shots to 9.

The match was played at Thohoyandou Stadium in Thohoyandou.