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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Marumo Gallants — Premier Soccer League 2018

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Marumo Gallants
Marumo Gallants
T. Mokoena 90', 62'
S. Ntiya-Ntiya 31' (OG)
N. Ndlondlo 40' (pen)
3/17/2026Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 22Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns63%
×Draw23%
Marumo Gallants14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.69
Marumo Gallants
0.63

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 168% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 76 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.94
Marumo Gallants
0.72

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.54
Marumo Gallants
1.45

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Marumo Gallants →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
86%
Mamelodi Sundowns or Marumo Gallants
77%
Draw or Marumo Gallants
37%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
36%
Marumo Gallants wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
82%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
50%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
24%
Marumo Gallants 1+ goals
47%
Marumo Gallants 2+ goals
13%
Marumo Gallants 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
82%
Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.54 · 120 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.94 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
63%
level
23%
Marumo Gallants scores more
14%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
T. MokoenaMamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns · M
9.3

Match Events

31'
S. Ntiya-NtiyaOwn goal
40'
N. NdlondloPenalty
46'
T. Mokoena← M. Reisinho
59'
M. Saleng← Z. Mdunyelwa
59'
I. Rayners← B. Leon
62'
T. Mokoena↳ Arthur Sales
69'
G. Kekana← Arthur Sales
71'
Siphosakhe Ntiya-Ntiya
77'
T. Zwane← T. Matthews
80'
S. Nhlapo← E. Manaka
80'
T. Dhludhlu← M. Ndlovu
85'
K. Sithole← M. Marou
90+2'
Kegan Johannes
90+3'
S. Sithole← N. Ndlondlo
90'
T. Mokoena↳ I. Rayners

Possession

74%Mamelodi

Shots

18Mamelodi

Pass accuracy

57%Mamelodi

Statistics

MamelodiMarumo
Overview
74%Possession26%
18Total Shots11
8Corners5
15Fouls6
Shots
18Total Shots11
8On Target3
7Off Target5
3Blocked3
11Inside Box5
7Outside Box6
Passing
74%Possession26%
567Total Passes191
507Accurate Passes130
89%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
Discipline
15Fouls6
1Yellow Cards1
0Offsides11

Premier Soccer League: Mamelodi Sundowns 3–1 Marumo Gallants

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Marumo Gallants 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on March 17, 2026.

Goals: S. Ntiya-Ntiya (31' o.g.), N. Ndlondlo (40' pen), T. Mokoena (62', 90').

Mamelodi Sundowns controlled possession (74%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Loftus Versfeld Stadium in Tshwane/Pretoria.