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Mamelodi Sundowns vs Marumo Gallants — Premier Soccer League 2018

Mamelodi Sundowns
Mamelodi Sundowns
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Marumo Gallants
Marumo Gallants
Sphelele Mkhulise 71'
Lucas Ribeiro 48'
Iqraam Rayners 34'
Tashreeq Matthews 9'
Gabadinho Mhango 88'
9/24/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 2Loftus Versfeld Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Mamelodi Sundowns63%
×Draw23%
Marumo Gallants14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.69
Marumo Gallants
0.63

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 168% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 76 away

creates per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
1.94
Marumo Gallants
0.72

allows per match

Mamelodi Sundowns
0.54
Marumo Gallants
1.45

finishing

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par
Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mamelodi Sundowns ↓

Marumo Gallants →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mamelodi Sundowns or draw
86%
Mamelodi Sundowns or Marumo Gallants
77%
Draw or Marumo Gallants
37%

Winning margin

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+
36%
Marumo Gallants wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals
82%
Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals
50%
Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals
24%
Marumo Gallants 1+ goals
47%
Marumo Gallants 2+ goals
13%
Marumo Gallants 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)
82%
Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mamelodi Sundowns at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.54 · 120 matches

Marumo Gallants away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.45 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.94 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

Marumo Gallants attack 0.72 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more
63%
level
23%
Marumo Gallants scores more
14%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
Tashreeq MatthewsMamelodi SundownsMamelodi Sundowns · F
9.7

Match Events

9'
Tashreeq Matthews
34'
Iqraam Rayners↳ Tashreeq Matthews
46'
Siyabonga Nhlapo← Kamohelo Mahlatsi
46'
Thapelo Mokobodi← Phathutshedzo Nange
48'
Lucas Ribeiro↳ Tashreeq Matthews
59'
Sphelele Mkhulise← Rivaldo Coetzee
60'
Peter Shalulile← Lucas Ribeiro
60'
Malibongwe Khoza← Asekho Tiwani
62'
Gabadinho Mhango← Sekela Sithole
63'
Gabadinho Mhango
69'
Nicholas Mlambo← Daniel Akpeyi
71'
Sphelele Mkhulise
74'
Mpambaniso Monde← Siyabulela Shai
78'
Zuko Mdunyelwa← Thapelo Morena
78'
Thembinkosi Lorch← Iqraam Rayners
83'
Edgar Manaka
87'
Gabadinho MhangoMissed penalty
88'
Gabadinho Mhango↳ Daniel Msendami
90'
Sphelele Mkhulise

Possession

61%Mamelodi

Shots

11Mamelodi

Pass accuracy

51%Mamelodi

Statistics

MamelodiMarumo
Overview
61%Possession39%
11Total Shots14
0Corners7
13Fouls6
Shots
11Total Shots14
9On Target6
1Off Target7
1Blocked1
8Inside Box7
3Outside Box7
Passing
61%Possession39%
578Total Passes355
508Accurate Passes300
88%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
5Saves5
Discipline
13Fouls6
1Yellow Cards2
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Mamelodi Sundowns vs Marumo Gallants

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Marumo Gallants 4-1 in Premier Soccer League on September 24, 2024.

Goals: Tashreeq Matthews (9'), Iqraam Rayners (34'), Lucas Ribeiro (48'), Sphelele Mkhulise (71'), Gabadinho Mhango (88').

Mamelodi Sundowns controlled possession (61%) and registered 11 shots to 14.

The match was played at Loftus Versfeld Stadium in Tshwane.