Marumo Gallants 0–2 Mamelodi Sundowns

Marumo Gallants

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Mamelodi Sundowns

T. Zwane 52'

T. Morena 1'

5/6/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 23Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Marumo Gallants22%

×Draw29%

Mamelodi Sundowns49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Marumo GallantsExpected goals in this matchMamelodi Sundowns

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.74

1.27

Marumo Gallants

0.74

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.27

Mamelodi Sundowns creates 72% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 119 away

0.86

creates per match

1.54

1.01

allows per match

0.62

creates per match

Marumo Gallants

0.86

Mamelodi Sundowns

1.54

allows per match

Marumo Gallants

1.01

Mamelodi Sundowns

0.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Marumo Gallants+0.00on par

Mamelodi Sundowns+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Marumo Gallants ↓

Mamelodi Sundowns →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–117%

0–211%

0–35%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Marumo Gallants or draw

51%

Marumo Gallants or Mamelodi Sundowns

71%

Draw or Mamelodi Sundowns

78%

Winning margin

Marumo Gallants wins by 2+

6%

Mamelodi Sundowns wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Marumo Gallants 1+ goals

52%

Marumo Gallants 2+ goals

17%

Marumo Gallants 3+ goals

4%

Mamelodi Sundowns 1+ goals

72%

Mamelodi Sundowns 2+ goals

36%

Mamelodi Sundowns 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Marumo Gallants (draw refunded)

31%

Mamelodi Sundowns (draw refunded)

69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Marumo Gallants at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.01 · 76 matches

Mamelodi Sundowns away — creates 1.54, concedes 0.62 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Marumo Gallants attack 0.86 + Mamelodi Sundowns defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.74

Mamelodi Sundowns attack 1.54 + Marumo Gallants defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Marumo Gallants scores more

22%

level

29%

Mamelodi Sundowns scores more

49%

Mamelodi Sundowns at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Mamelodi Sundowns will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

T. Morena↳ T. Zwane

35'

Ranga Chivaviro

41'

Mothobi Mvala

46'

M. Mphambaniso← S. Kumalo

46'

L. Nku← M. Makudubela

46'

M. Lebusa← A. Boutouil

52'

T. Zwane

60'

Aubrey Maphosa Modiba

73'

L. Koapeng← S. Sibeko

73'

76'

76'

82'

88'

B. Zungu← P. Shalulile

Possession

Shots

Statistics

MarumoMamelodi

Overview

47%Possession53%

6Total Shots10

1Corners2

12Fouls18

Shots

6Total Shots10

2On Target6

2Off Target4

Passing

47%Possession53%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

12Fouls18

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides5

Match Recap: Marumo Gallants vs Mamelodi Sundowns

Mamelodi Sundowns beat Marumo Gallants 2-0 in Premier Soccer League on May 6, 2023.

Goals: T. Morena (1'), T. Zwane (52').

Mamelodi Sundowns controlled possession (53%) and registered 10 shots to 6.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.

Marumo Gallants vs Mamelodi Sundowns — Premier Soccer League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Marumo Gallants vs Mamelodi Sundowns