Telstar vs Heracles — Eredivisie 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 12+ matches
Telstar49%
Heracles27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Telstar creates 41% more chances
Season form · 12 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over55
- Under45
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes57
- No43
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Telstar ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Telstar at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.53 · 12 matches
Heracles away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.94 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Telstar attack 1.45 + Heracles defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.69
Heracles attack 0.87 + Telstar defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.20
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 49%?"
Telstar at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 49% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
PSV Eindhoven
Feyenoord
Ajax
NEC Nijmegen
Twente
Utrecht
AZ Alkmaar
Heerenveen
Groningen
Sparta Rotterdam
Fortuna Sittard
GO Ahead Eagles
ExcelsiorTelstar
PEC Zwolle
FC Volendam
NAC BredaHeraclesIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Telstar host Heracles on Sunday, 10 May 2026 at 14:45. The match is part of the Eredivisie 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Telstar vs Heracles
Telstar beat Heracles 3-0 in Eredivisie on May 10, 2026.
Goals: G. Offerhaus (70'), T. Noslin (72'), J. Hardeveld (77').
Heracles controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 12.
The match was played at BUKO Stadion in Velsen-Zuid.