Telstar 0–3 Heracles: Result & Stats

Telstar

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Heracles

N. Laursen 90+4' (pen)

R. Cicilia 87'

E. Hansson 58'

9/16/2022

Eerste Divisie · Round 7BUKO Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Telstar29%

×Draw23%

Heracles48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TelstarExpected goals in this matchHeracles

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.86

Telstar

1.41

Heracles

1.86

Heracles creates 32% more chances

Season form · 128 home / 19 away

1.50

creates per match

2.21

1.52

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Telstar

1.50

Heracles

2.21

allows per match

Telstar

1.52

Heracles

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par

Heracles+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

Heracles →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Telstar or draw

52%

Telstar or Heracles

77%

Draw or Heracles

71%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+

13%

Heracles wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals

76%

Telstar 2+ goals

41%

Telstar 3+ goals

17%

Heracles 1+ goals

84%

Heracles 2+ goals

55%

Heracles 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)

38%

Heracles (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.52 · 128 matches

Heracles away — creates 2.21, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 1.50 + Heracles defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.41

Heracles attack 2.21 + Telstar defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Telstar scores more

29%

level

23%

Heracles scores more

48%

Heracles at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Heracles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

E. Hansson

Heracles · M

8.6

Match Events

40'

Ruben Roosken

42'

Jay Kruiver

46'

H. Deyonge← R. Roosken

46'

T. Bruns← L. Schoofs

54'

Anass Najah

58'

E. Hansson↳ S. Armenteros

66'

M. Vejinović← S. Scheperman

68'

C. Seedorf← K. Blommestijn

68'

D. Min← G. Plet

69'

D. Blackson← J. Mulder

82'

R. Cicilia← S. Armenteros

86'

T. Overtoom← M. Apau

86'

M. Leš← A. Ouahim

87'

R. Cicilia↳ E. Hansson

90+1'

R. Smit← A. Najah

90+4'

N. LaursenPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

TelstarHeracles

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots13

3Corners5

14Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target5

4Off Target5

2Blocked3

10Inside Box9

2Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

330Total Passes528

251Accurate Passes446

76%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1