Heracles 1–1 Telstar: Result & Stats | Eredivisie

Heracles

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Telstar

I. Mesik 90'

M. Zonneveld 67'

12/6/2025

Eredivisie · Round 15Asito Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Heracles47%

×Draw23%

Telstar30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeraclesExpected goals in this matchTelstar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.39

Heracles

1.79

Telstar

1.39

Heracles creates 29% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

1.58

creates per match

1.34

1.44

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Heracles

1.58

Telstar

1.34

allows per match

Heracles

1.44

Telstar

2.00

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

-0.28scores less than expected

finishing

Heracles+0.11scores more

Telstar-0.28scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heracles ↓

Telstar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Heracles or draw

70%

Heracles or Telstar

77%

Draw or Telstar

53%

Winning margin

Heracles wins by 2+

25%

Telstar wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Heracles 1+ goals

83%

Heracles 2+ goals

53%

Heracles 3+ goals

26%

Telstar 1+ goals

75%

Telstar 2+ goals

40%

Telstar 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Heracles (draw refunded)

61%

Telstar (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heracles at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.34, concedes 2.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heracles attack 1.58 + Telstar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Telstar attack 1.34 + Heracles defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Heracles scores more

47%

level

23%

Telstar scores more

30%

Heracles at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Heracles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

R. Koeman

Telstar · G

8.3

Match Events

27'

32'

46'

54'

65'

T. Bruns← J. Zamburek

65'

Y. Borges Sanches← T. van Gilst

65'

M. Zonneveld← S. Hetli

67'

M. Zonneveld↳ J. Hardeveld

72'

M. Benita← M. te Wierik

72'

M. Engels← B. Limbombe

76'

D. Mertens← N. Ogidi Nwankwo

76'

D. Malone← P. Brouwer

84'

85'

90+4'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HeraclesTelstar

Overview

46%Possession54%

15Total Shots11

2.21Expected Goals (xG)0.75

6Corners6

15Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots11

6On Target2

3Off Target5

6Blocked4

14Inside Box5

1Outside Box6

Passing

46%Possession54%

330Total Passes396

244Accurate Passes317

74%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

1.45Goals Prevented1.45

Discipline

15Fouls12

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Eredivisie: Heracles 1–1 Telstar

Heracles and Telstar drew 1-1 in Eredivisie on December 6, 2025.

Goals: M. Zonneveld (67'), I. Mesik (90').

Telstar controlled possession (54%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Asito Stadium in Almelo.

Heracles vs Telstar — Eredivisie 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Eredivisie: Heracles 1–1 Telstar