Heracles 7–0 Telstar: Result & Stats

Heracles

FT

7 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Telstar

S. Armenteros 89', 80', 39'

E. Hansson 77'

A. Ouahim 35', 11'

N. Laursen 24'

2/24/2023

Eerste Divisie · Round 26Erve Asito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Heracles68%

×Draw18%

Telstar14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HeraclesExpected goals in this matchTelstar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.45

1.03

Heracles

2.45

Telstar

1.03

Heracles creates 138% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 129 away

3.21

creates per match

1.18

0.89

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Heracles

3.21

Telstar

1.18

allows per match

Heracles

0.89

Telstar

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Heracles+0.00on par

Telstar+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Heracles ↓

Telstar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Heracles or draw

86%

Heracles or Telstar

82%

Draw or Telstar

32%

Winning margin

Heracles wins by 2+

46%

Telstar wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Heracles 1+ goals

91%

Heracles 2+ goals

70%

Heracles 3+ goals

44%

Telstar 1+ goals

64%

Telstar 2+ goals

28%

Telstar 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Heracles (draw refunded)

83%

Telstar (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Heracles at home — creates 3.21, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Telstar away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.69 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Heracles attack 3.21 + Telstar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.45

Telstar attack 1.18 + Heracles defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Heracles scores more

68%

level

18%

Telstar scores more

14%

Heracles at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Heracles will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

S. Armenteros

Heracles · F

9.6

Match Events

4'

Antonio Satriano

11'

A. Ouahim↳ E. Hansson

23'

Nikolai Laursen

24'

N. Laursen↳ R. Roosken

32'

Ozgur Aktas

35'

A. Ouahim↳ L. Schoofs

36'

S. Armenteros← A. Satriano

39'

S. Armenteros↳ M. Rente

46'

J. Mulder← J. Turfkruier

66'

C. Seedorf← G. Plet

66'

Y. Boussakou← J. Kruiver

70'

I. Azzaoui← A. Ouahim

70'

L. Wehmeyer← N. Laursen

77'

E. Hansson

80'

S. Armenteros↳ T. Bruns

81'

S. Sonnenberg← S. Cestic

81'

M. Vejinović← T. Bruns

83'

K. Blommestijn← C. Giousis

84'

D. Blackson← T. Oude Kotte

89'

S. Armenteros↳ I. Azzaoui

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HeraclesTelstar

Overview

45%Possession55%

15Total Shots12

1Corners2

16Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots12

10On Target3

4Off Target8

1Blocked1

11Inside Box7

4Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

384Total Passes479

297Accurate Passes404

77%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

16Fouls6

2Yellow Cards1