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Telstar vs Heracles — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Telstar
Telstar
CANC
14:00
Heracles
Heracles
7/20/2021Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3BUKO Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Telstar64%
×Draw23%
Heracles13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Telstar
1.75
Heracles
0.65

Telstar creates 169% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Telstar
2.50
Heracles
0.80

allows per match

Telstar
0.50
Heracles
1.00

finishing

Telstar+0.00on par
Heracles+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Telstar ↓

Heracles →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Telstar or draw
87%
Telstar or Heracles
77%
Draw or Heracles
36%

Winning margin

Telstar wins by 2+
37%
Heracles wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Telstar 1+ goals
83%
Telstar 2+ goals
52%
Telstar 3+ goals
25%
Heracles 1+ goals
48%
Heracles 2+ goals
14%
Heracles 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Telstar (draw refunded)
83%
Heracles (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Telstar at home — creates 2.50, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

Heracles away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Telstar attack 2.50 + Heracles defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Heracles attack 0.80 + Telstar defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Telstar scores more
64%
level
23%
Heracles scores more
13%

Telstar at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Telstar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Telstar host Heracles

July 20, 2021: Telstar take on Heracles in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Telstar host Heracles at BUKO Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.