Hull City 0–1 Burnley: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burnley

D. Ings 62'

5/9/2015

Premier League · Round 36Kingston Communications Stadium (Hull)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Hull City41%

×Draw25%

Burnley33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.30

Hull City

1.48

Burnley

1.30

Hull City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 156 away

1.26

creates per match

0.96

1.64

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Hull City

1.26

Burnley

0.96

allows per match

Hull City

1.64

Burnley

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

67%

Hull City or Burnley

75%

Draw or Burnley

59%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

20%

Burnley wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

77%

Hull City 2+ goals

43%

Hull City 3+ goals

19%

Burnley 1+ goals

73%

Burnley 2+ goals

37%

Burnley 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

55%

Burnley (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.26 + Burnley defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Burnley attack 0.96 + Hull City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hull City scores more

41%

level

25%

Burnley scores more

33%

Hull City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

D. Meyler← J. Livermore

57'

N. Jelavić← P. McShane

62'

D. Ings

66'

A. Hernández← S. Aluko

76'

S. Ward← M. Taylor

88'

M. Keane← D. Ings

Hull

Burnley

1

5

4

2

6

15

▼

14

37

30

21

10

⚽

▼

Ings

22

Harper

21

Dawson

15

▼

5

29

8

24

▼

Aluko

27

Mohamady

14

▼

Livermore

28

N'Doye

11

Brady

57'▲D. Meyler←▼J. Livermore

57'▲N. Jelavić←▼P. McShane

66'▲A. Hernández←▼S. Aluko

Hull City substitutes

7Meyler18Jelavić9Hernández1McGregor2Rosenior4Bruce26Robertson

76'▲S. Ward←▼M. Taylor

88'▲M. Keane←▼D. Ings

Burnley substitutes

23Ward25Keane9Vokes11Kightly19Jutkiewicz20Ulvestad22Gilks