Hull City 1–1 Burnley: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Burnley

T. Huddlestone 72' (pen)

M. Keane 76'

2/25/2017

Premier League · Round 26KCOM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Hull City41%

×Draw25%

Burnley33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.30

Hull City

1.48

Burnley

1.30

Hull City creates 14% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 156 away

1.26

creates per match

0.96

1.64

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Hull City

1.26

Burnley

0.96

allows per match

Hull City

1.64

Burnley

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Burnley+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

67%

Hull City or Burnley

75%

Draw or Burnley

59%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

20%

Burnley wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

77%

Hull City 2+ goals

43%

Hull City 3+ goals

19%

Burnley 1+ goals

73%

Burnley 2+ goals

37%

Burnley 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

55%

Burnley (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Burnley away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.69 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.26 + Burnley defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.48

Burnley attack 0.96 + Hull City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hull City scores more

41%

level

25%

Burnley scores more

33%

Hull City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hull City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

T. Huddlestone

Hull City · M

7.6

Match Events

40'

Ashley Westwood

53'

Tom Huddlestone

67'

D. Meyler← S. Maloney

67'

O. Niasse← D. Mbokani

71'

Ashley Barnes

72'

T. HuddlestonePenalty

76'

M. Keane↳ R. Brady

82'

A. Hernández← O. Elabdellaoui

85'

S. Vokes← A. Gray

85'

J. Tarkowski← A. Westwood

89'

S. Arfield← R. Brady

90'

Ashley Barnes

90'

Ashley Barnes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullBurnley

Overview

66%Possession34%

15Total Shots11

6Corners3

8Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots11

1On Target3

9Off Target4

5Blocked4

10Inside Box5

5Outside Box6

Passing

66%Possession34%

477Total Passes240

371Accurate Passes136

78%Pass Accuracy57%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

8Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides6