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Hull City vs Burnley — Championship 2025

Hull City
Hull City
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Burnley
Burnley
X. Simons 45'
Z. Flemming 77'
10/23/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 11The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Hull City35%
×Draw28%
Burnley37%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hull City
1.14
Burnley
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hull City
1.41
Burnley
1.00

allows per match

Hull City
1.37
Burnley
0.86

finishing

Hull City-0.06on par
Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Burnley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Hull City or draw
63%
Hull City or Burnley
72%
Draw or Burnley
65%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+
14%
Burnley wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals
68%
Hull City 2+ goals
32%
Hull City 3+ goals
11%
Burnley 1+ goals
70%
Burnley 2+ goals
33%
Burnley 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)
48%
Burnley (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.37 · 37 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.41 + Burnley defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.14

Burnley attack 1.00 + Hull City defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hull City scores more
35%
level
28%
Burnley scores more
37%

Burnley at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
C. HughesHull CityHull City · D
7.9

Match Events

13'
A. Kamara← L. Millar
45'
X. Simons↳ A. Kamara
64'
A. Ömür← G. Puerta
64'
C. Bedia← João Pedro
65'
E. Agyei← L. Koleosho
65'
J. Laurent← H. Mejbri
76'
A. Hountondji← J. Cullen
77'
Z. Flemming↳ J. Anthony
83'
B. Humphreys← Lucas Pires
83'
J. Rodríguez← Z. Flemming
84'
R. Giles← M. Belloumi
85'
K. Palmer← R. Slater
90+4'
Bashir Humphreys

Possession

42%Hull

Shots

11Hull

Pass accuracy

49%Hull

Statistics

HullBurnley
Overview
42%Possession58%
11Total Shots11
0.89Expected Goals (xG)0.65
4Corners8
4Fouls15
Shots
11Total Shots11
2On Target5
6Off Target4
3Blocked2
8Inside Box8
3Outside Box3
Passing
42%Possession58%
403Total Passes551
331Accurate Passes470
82%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
-0.51Goals Prevented-0.51
Discipline
4Fouls15
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides0

Match Recap: Hull City vs Burnley

Hull City and Burnley drew 1-1 in Championship on October 23, 2024.

Goals: X. Simons (45'), Z. Flemming (77').

Burnley controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 11.

The match was played at The MKM Stadium in Hull.