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Burnley vs Hull City — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hull City
Hull City
J. Rodríguez 34'
O. Tufan 25'
8/16/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 4Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Burnley48%
×Draw28%
Hull City25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.37
Hull City
0.90

Burnley creates 52% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 44 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.17
Hull City
1.14

allows per match

Burnley
0.66
Hull City
1.57

finishing

Burnley+0.33scores more
Hull City-0.03on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
75%
Burnley or Hull City
72%
Draw or Hull City
52%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
23%
Hull City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
75%
Burnley 2+ goals
40%
Burnley 3+ goals
16%
Hull City 1+ goals
59%
Hull City 2+ goals
23%
Hull City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
66%
Hull City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.66 · 10 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.17 + Hull City defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.37

Hull City attack 1.14 + Burnley defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Burnley scores more
48%
level
28%
Hull City scores more
25%

Burnley at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
J. CullenBurnleyBurnley · M
7.7

Match Events

11'
Benjamin Tetteh
25'
O. Tufan↳ Ó. Estupiñán
34'
J. Rodríguez↳ I. Maatsen
55'
R. Williams← A. Sayyadmanesh
64'
M. Wilks← B. Tetteh
66'
N. Tella← S. Bastien
66'
B. Manuel← Vitinho
68'
Alfie Jones
76'
V. Covil← Ó. Estupiñán
77'
A. Cannon← O. Tufan
83'
A. Barnes← J. Rodríguez
89'
Josh Brownhill
90+6'
Callum Elder

Possession

77%Burnley

Shots

15Burnley

Pass accuracy

58%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyHull
Overview
77%Possession23%
15Total Shots4
6Corners2
7Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots4
5On Target3
5Off Target1
5Blocked0
8Inside Box4
7Outside Box0
Passing
77%Possession23%
746Total Passes219
652Accurate Passes139
87%Pass Accuracy63%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
7Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides2

Championship: Burnley 1–1 Hull City

Burnley and Hull City drew 1-1 in Championship on August 16, 2022.

Goals: O. Tufan (25'), J. Rodríguez (34').

Burnley controlled possession (77%) and registered 15 shots to 4.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.