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Burnley vs Hull City — Championship 2025

Burnley
Burnley
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Hull City
Hull City
Z. Flemming 21'
B. Humphreys 3'
2/12/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 32Turf Moor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Burnley47%
×Draw28%
Hull City25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Burnley
1.37
Hull City
0.91

Burnley creates 51% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 43 away

creates per match

Burnley
1.17
Hull City
1.16

allows per match

Burnley
0.66
Hull City
1.57

finishing

Burnley+0.33scores more
Hull City-0.02on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Burnley ↓

Hull City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Burnley or draw
75%
Burnley or Hull City
72%
Draw or Hull City
53%

Winning margin

Burnley wins by 2+
23%
Hull City wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Burnley 1+ goals
75%
Burnley 2+ goals
40%
Burnley 3+ goals
16%
Hull City 1+ goals
60%
Hull City 2+ goals
23%
Hull City 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Burnley (draw refunded)
66%
Hull City (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Burnley at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.66 · 10 matches

Hull City away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.57 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Burnley attack 1.17 + Hull City defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.37

Hull City attack 1.16 + Burnley defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Burnley scores more
47%
level
28%
Hull City scores more
25%

Burnley at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
C. Egan-RileyBurnleyBurnley · D
8.2

Match Events

3'
B. Humphreys↳ L. Foster
21'
Z. Flemming↳ J. Anthony
41'
Alfie Jones
58'
L. Barry← A. Kamara
64'
João Pedro← K. Joseph
65'
M. Burstow← M. Crooks
74'
M. Edwards← Z. Flemming
80'
J. Sarmiento← H. Mejbri
84'
N. Amrabat← J. Gelhardt
85'
R. Slater← E. Matazo
90+2'
J. Worrall← J. Anthony
90+2'
A. Barnes← L. Foster

Possession

67%Burnley

Shots

16Burnley

Pass accuracy

52%Burnley

Statistics

BurnleyHull
Overview
67%Possession33%
16Total Shots9
1.46Expected Goals (xG)0.35
9Corners3
5Fouls11
Shots
16Total Shots9
5On Target3
6Off Target3
5Blocked3
12Inside Box4
4Outside Box5
Passing
67%Possession33%
693Total Passes337
636Accurate Passes285
92%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
-1.01Goals Prevented-1.01
Discipline
5Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Championship: Burnley 2–0 Hull City

Burnley beat Hull City 2-0 in Championship on February 12, 2025.

Goals: B. Humphreys (3'), Z. Flemming (21').

Burnley controlled possession (67%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Turf Moor in Burnley.