Hull City 1–3 Burnley: Result & Stats

Hull City

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Burnley

O. Tufan 90+3'

N. Tella 73', 59', 43'

3/15/2023

Championship · Round 37The MKM Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Hull City33%

×Draw28%

Burnley39%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hull CityExpected goals in this matchBurnley

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.23

Hull City

1.11

Burnley

1.23

Burnley creates 11% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 9 away

1.36

creates per match

1.04

1.43

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Hull City

1.36

Burnley

1.04

allows per match

Hull City

1.43

Burnley

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Hull City+0.00on par

Burnley+0.40scores more

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hull City ↓

Burnley →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Hull City or draw

61%

Hull City or Burnley

72%

Draw or Burnley

67%

Winning margin

Hull City wins by 2+

13%

Burnley wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hull City 1+ goals

67%

Hull City 2+ goals

30%

Hull City 3+ goals

10%

Burnley 1+ goals

71%

Burnley 2+ goals

35%

Burnley 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Hull City (draw refunded)

46%

Burnley (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hull City at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.43 · 28 matches

Burnley away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.86 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hull City attack 1.36 + Burnley defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.11

Burnley attack 1.04 + Hull City defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hull City scores more

33%

level

28%

Burnley scores more

39%

Burnley at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Burnley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

N. Tella

Burnley · F

9.3

Match Events

39'

Dimitrios Pelkas

43'

N. Tella↳ H. Ekdal

46'

Ó. Estupiñán← D. Pelkas

52'

G. Docherty← L. Coyle

57'

59'

63'

63'

70'

70'

J. Cork← Vitinho

70'

B. Manuel← A. Zaroury

73'

N. Tella

74'

R. Longman← A. Sayyadmanesh

78'

M. Obafemi← N. Tella

82'

Ian Maatsen

87'

L. Foster← J. Guðmundsson

90+3'

O. Tufan↳ G. Docherty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HullBurnley

Overview

40%Possession60%

14Total Shots9

3Corners3

8Fouls14

Shots

14Total Shots9

6On Target3

5Off Target4

3Blocked2

10Inside Box8

4Outside Box1

Passing

40%Possession60%

400Total Passes591

312Accurate Passes510

78%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls14

1Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2