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SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock — League #80 2026

SV Sandhausen
SV Sandhausen
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
J. Mejdr 87'
T. Krohn 61'
A. Lebeau 52' (pen)
5/3/2025League #80League #80 · Round 36GP Stadion am Hardtwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

SV Sandhausen34%
×Draw23%
Hansa Rostock43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Sandhausen
1.50
Hansa Rostock
1.72

Hansa Rostock creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 44 away

creates per match

SV Sandhausen
1.89
Hansa Rostock
1.11

allows per match

SV Sandhausen
2.33
Hansa Rostock
1.11

finishing

SV Sandhausen+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Sandhausen ↓

Hansa Rostock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SV Sandhausen or draw
57%
SV Sandhausen or Hansa Rostock
77%
Draw or Hansa Rostock
66%

Winning margin

SV Sandhausen wins by 2+
16%
Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

SV Sandhausen 1+ goals
78%
SV Sandhausen 2+ goals
44%
SV Sandhausen 3+ goals
19%
Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
82%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
51%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)
44%
Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Sandhausen at home — creates 1.89, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Sandhausen attack 1.89 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hansa Rostock attack 1.11 + SV Sandhausen defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SV Sandhausen scores more
34%
level
23%
Hansa Rostock scores more
43%

Hansa Rostock at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
B. UphoffHansa RostockHansa Rostock · G
7.9

Match Events

31'
Marco Schikora
36'
Luca Zander
52'
A. LebeauPenalty
53'
Adrien Lebeau
56'
Jeremias Lorch
60'
T. Krohn← A. Lebeau
60'
N. Fröling← C. Kinsombi
61'
T. Krohn↳ S. Haugen
64'
D. Baumann← B. Halimi
64'
J. Butler← S. Stolze
64'
N. Kreuzer← L. Zander
78'
E. Iwe← S. Fehler
78'
L. Simnica← J. Lorch
81'
C. Harenbrock← B. Dietze
81'
S. Suso← S. Haugen
87'
J. Mejdr↳ N. Fröling
88'
D. Gebuhr← J. Mejdr

Possession

48%SV

Shots

15SV

Pass accuracy

50%SV

Statistics

SVHansa
Overview
48%Possession52%
15Total Shots15
1.84Expected Goals (xG)3.57
5Corners4
10Fouls13
Shots
15Total Shots15
4On Target7
8Off Target4
3Blocked4
7Inside Box12
8Outside Box3
Passing
48%Possession52%
371Total Passes416
314Accurate Passes351
85%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
4Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls13
3Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
3Offsides5

Match Recap: SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock

Hansa Rostock beat SV Sandhausen 3-0 in League #80 on May 3, 2025.

Goals: A. Lebeau (52' pen), T. Krohn (61'), J. Mejdr (87').

Hansa Rostock controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at GP Stadion am Hardtwald in Sandhausen.