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SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Sandhausen
SV Sandhausen
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
J. Bachmann 54'
K. Pröger 37' (pen)
N. Fröling 17'
5/12/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 32BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

SV Sandhausen42%
×Draw26%
Hansa Rostock32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Sandhausen
1.40
Hansa Rostock
1.19

SV Sandhausen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 54 away

creates per match

SV Sandhausen
1.16
Hansa Rostock
0.94

allows per match

SV Sandhausen
1.45
Hansa Rostock
1.65

finishing

SV Sandhausen+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Sandhausen ↓

Hansa Rostock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

SV Sandhausen or draw
68%
SV Sandhausen or Hansa Rostock
74%
Draw or Hansa Rostock
58%

Winning margin

SV Sandhausen wins by 2+
20%
Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SV Sandhausen 1+ goals
75%
SV Sandhausen 2+ goals
41%
SV Sandhausen 3+ goals
17%
Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
70%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
33%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)
57%
Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Sandhausen at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 97 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Sandhausen attack 1.16 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 + SV Sandhausen defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SV Sandhausen scores more
42%
level
26%
Hansa Rostock scores more
32%

SV Sandhausen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SV Sandhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
J. BachmannSV SandhausenSV Sandhausen · F
7.3

Match Events

17'
N. Fröling
33'
Lukas Fröde
33'
T. Meißner← D. Roßbach
37'
K. PrögerPenalty
40'
Erik Zenga
42'
Alexander Esswein
46'
A. El-Zein← M. Papela
46'
F. Evina← A. Sicker
54'
J. Bachmann↳ A. Esswein
58'
Franck Evina
63'
J. Verhoek← L. Hinterseer
63'
M. Schröter← N. Fröling
74'
John Verhoek
74'
A. Kutucu← K. Ademi
84'
H. Al Ghaddioui← A. Esswein
90+2'
F. Ananou← D. Dressel
90+2'
J. Strauß← K. Pröger

Possession

64%SV

Shots

17SV

Pass accuracy

58%SV

Statistics

SVHansa
Overview
64%Possession36%
17Total Shots8
7Corners5
11Fouls12
Shots
17Total Shots8
1On Target3
8Off Target4
8Blocked1
10Inside Box5
7Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
472Total Passes271
356Accurate Passes149
75%Pass Accuracy55%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
11Fouls12
3Yellow Cards2
0Offsides2

2. Bundesliga: SV Sandhausen 1–2 Hansa Rostock

Hansa Rostock beat SV Sandhausen 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on May 12, 2023.

Goals: N. Fröling (17'), K. Pröger (37' pen), J. Bachmann (54').

SV Sandhausen controlled possession (64%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald in Sandhausen.