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SV Sandhausen vs Hansa Rostock — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Sandhausen
SV Sandhausen
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Hansa Rostock
Hansa Rostock
J. Verhoek 48'
3/19/20222. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 27BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

SV Sandhausen42%
×Draw26%
Hansa Rostock32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Sandhausen
1.40
Hansa Rostock
1.19

SV Sandhausen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 54 away

creates per match

SV Sandhausen
1.16
Hansa Rostock
0.94

allows per match

SV Sandhausen
1.45
Hansa Rostock
1.65

finishing

SV Sandhausen+0.00on par
Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Sandhausen ↓

Hansa Rostock →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

SV Sandhausen or draw
68%
SV Sandhausen or Hansa Rostock
74%
Draw or Hansa Rostock
58%

Winning margin

SV Sandhausen wins by 2+
20%
Hansa Rostock wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SV Sandhausen 1+ goals
75%
SV Sandhausen 2+ goals
41%
SV Sandhausen 3+ goals
17%
Hansa Rostock 1+ goals
70%
Hansa Rostock 2+ goals
33%
Hansa Rostock 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)
57%
Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Sandhausen at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 97 matches

Hansa Rostock away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.65 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Sandhausen attack 1.16 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Hansa Rostock attack 0.94 + SV Sandhausen defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

SV Sandhausen scores more
42%
level
26%
Hansa Rostock scores more
32%

SV Sandhausen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "SV Sandhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16
R. MaloneHansa RostockHansa Rostock · D
7.9

Match Events

27'
Bashkim Ajdini
32'
Aleksandr Zhirov
34'
Svante Ingelsson
48'
J. Verhoek↳ S. Rhein
57'
D. Sikan← P. Breier
63'
A. Kutucu← C. Kinsombi
63'
A. Esswein← B. Ajdini
63'
E. Berko← M. Ritzmaier
71'
L. Fröde← S. Rhein
72'
R. Munsy← J. Verhoek
72'
J. Meier← J. Riedel
82'
T. Schwede← S. Ingelsson
87'
M. Deville← D. Diekmeier
90+5'
Pascal Testroet
90+1'
Ahmed Kutucu

Possession

53%SV

Shots

17SV

Pass accuracy

51%SV

Statistics

SVHansa
Overview
53%Possession47%
17Total Shots8
14Corners5
10Fouls11
Shots
17Total Shots8
3On Target3
10Off Target4
4Blocked1
14Inside Box6
3Outside Box2
Passing
53%Possession47%
381Total Passes362
275Accurate Passes248
72%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls11
4Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

2. Bundesliga: SV Sandhausen 0–1 Hansa Rostock

Hansa Rostock beat SV Sandhausen 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on March 19, 2022.

Goals: J. Verhoek (48').

SV Sandhausen controlled possession (53%) and registered 17 shots to 8.

The match was played at BWT-Stadion am Hardtwald in Sandhausen.