Hansa Rostock 1–0 SV Sandhausen: Result & Stats

Hansa Rostock

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

SV Sandhausen

N. Fröling 41'

12/7/2024

League #80 · Round 17Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Hansa Rostock64%

×Draw21%

SV Sandhausen16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa RostockExpected goals in this matchSV Sandhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.89

Hansa Rostock

2.04

SV Sandhausen

0.89

Hansa Rostock creates 129% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 10 away

1.68

creates per match

0.70

1.07

allows per match

2.40

creates per match

Hansa Rostock

1.68

SV Sandhausen

0.70

allows per match

Hansa Rostock

1.07

SV Sandhausen

2.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

SV Sandhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

SV Sandhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw

84%

Hansa Rostock or SV Sandhausen

79%

Draw or SV Sandhausen

36%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

39%

SV Sandhausen wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

87%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

60%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

33%

SV Sandhausen 1+ goals

59%

SV Sandhausen 2+ goals

22%

SV Sandhausen 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

80%

SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.07 · 44 matches

SV Sandhausen away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.40 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 1.68 + SV Sandhausen defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.04

SV Sandhausen attack 0.70 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more

64%

level

21%

SV Sandhausen scores more

16%

Hansa Rostock at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Hansa Rostock will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

Patrick Greil

37'

D. Gorka← T. Königsmann

41'

N. Fröling↳ M. Schuster

48'

Niklas Lang

54'

Jonas Dirkner

58'

David Otto

61'

E. Iwe← S. Fehler

71'

R. Naderi← N. Fröling

81'

T. Krohn← S. Haugen

81'

L. Köster← C. Kinsombi

83'

L. Wolf← P. Greil

83'

S. Stolze← D. Baumann

90+2'

Alexander Mühling

90+2'

D. Roßbach← F. Ruschke

Hansa3-4-2-1

SV3-4-2-1

28

▼

Baumann

7

▼

17

3

15

24

▼

16

6

14

23

22

▼

1

23

21

5

A

Schuster

29

▼

22

6

19

10

⚽

▼

Fröling

27

▼

Kinsombi

18

▼

Haugen

Manager: D. Brinkmann

71'▲R. Naderi←▼N. Fröling

81'▲T. Krohn←▼S. Haugen

81'▲L. Köster←▼C. Kinsombi

90+2'▲D. Roßbach←▼F. Ruschke

Hansa Rostock substitutes

20Naderi44Krohn37Köster4Roßbach11Jonjić8Harenbrock9Berisha25Klewin36Bock

Manager: S. Ristić

37'▲D. Gorka←▼T. Königsmann

61'▲E. Iwe←▼S. Fehler

83'▲L. Wolf←▼P. Greil

83'▲S. Stolze←▼D. Baumann

SV Sandhausen substitutes

35Gorka13Iwe27Wolf36Stolze26Carls2Girdvainis33Lambert20Maciejewski

League #80: Hansa Rostock 1–0 SV Sandhausen

Hansa Rostock beat SV Sandhausen 1-0 in League #80 on December 7, 2024.

Goals: N. Fröling (41').

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.

Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen — League #80 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #80: Hansa Rostock 1–0 SV Sandhausen