Hansa Rostock 0–1 SV Sandhausen: Result & Stats

Hansa Rostock

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

SV Sandhausen

C. Kinsombi 45'

11/4/2022

2. Bundesliga · Round 15Ostseestadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Hansa Rostock36%

×Draw26%

SV Sandhausen37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hansa RostockExpected goals in this matchSV Sandhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.33

Hansa Rostock

1.31

SV Sandhausen

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 93 away

1.07

creates per match

1.17

1.50

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Hansa Rostock

1.07

SV Sandhausen

1.17

allows per match

Hansa Rostock

1.50

SV Sandhausen

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hansa Rostock+0.00on par

SV Sandhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hansa Rostock ↓

SV Sandhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hansa Rostock or draw

63%

Hansa Rostock or SV Sandhausen

74%

Draw or SV Sandhausen

64%

Winning margin

Hansa Rostock wins by 2+

16%

SV Sandhausen wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hansa Rostock 1+ goals

73%

Hansa Rostock 2+ goals

38%

Hansa Rostock 3+ goals

14%

SV Sandhausen 1+ goals

74%

SV Sandhausen 2+ goals

38%

SV Sandhausen 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hansa Rostock (draw refunded)

49%

SV Sandhausen (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hansa Rostock at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.50 · 54 matches

SV Sandhausen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.56 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hansa Rostock attack 1.07 + SV Sandhausen defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

SV Sandhausen attack 1.17 + Hansa Rostock defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hansa Rostock scores more

36%

level

26%

SV Sandhausen scores more

37%

SV Sandhausen at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "SV Sandhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

N. Rehnen

SV Sandhausen · G

8.3

Match Events

1'

Ryan Malone

20'

Lukas Fröde

45'

C. Kinsombi↳ D. Kinsombi

46'

R. van Drongelen← R. Malone

59'

H. Duljević← L. Hinterseer

64'

Bashkim Ajdini

75'

J. Strauß← N. Neidhart

75'

K. Schumacher← S. Ingelsson

75'

Anderson Lucoqui← D. Roßbach

80'

A. Kutucu← C. Soukou

85'

John-Patrick Strauss

89'

T. Trybull← A. Esswein

90+4'

Markus Kolke

90+5'

M. Pulkrab← C. Kinsombi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HansaSV

Overview

55%Possession45%

19Total Shots15

8Corners2

14Fouls9

Shots

19Total Shots15

7On Target6

5Off Target7

7Blocked2

16Inside Box7

3Outside Box8

Passing

55%Possession45%

408Total Passes339

297Accurate Passes228

73%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

5Saves6

Discipline

14Fouls9

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen

SV Sandhausen beat Hansa Rostock 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on November 4, 2022.

Goals: C. Kinsombi (45').

Hansa Rostock controlled possession (55%) and registered 19 shots to 15.

The match was played at Ostseestadion in Rostock.

Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Hansa Rostock vs SV Sandhausen