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SV Darmstadt 98 vs Hertha BSC — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
8/24/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 3Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9853%
×Draw21%
Hertha BSC26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Darmstadt 98
2.09
Hertha BSC
1.41

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98
2.23
Hertha BSC
1.54

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98
1.27
Hertha BSC
1.96

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98-0.35scores less
Hertha BSC+0.19scores more

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

Hertha BSC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw
74%
SV Darmstadt 98 or Hertha BSC
79%
Draw or Hertha BSC
47%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
31%
Hertha BSC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
88%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
62%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
34%
Hertha BSC 1+ goals
76%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
41%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
67%
Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.27 · 8 matches

Hertha BSC away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.96 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.23 + Hertha BSC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.09

Hertha BSC attack 1.54 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
53%
level
21%
Hertha BSC scores more
26%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
P. PfeifferSV Darmstadt 98SV Darmstadt 98 · D
8.5

Match Events

51'
Marco Richter
61'
M. Maglica← H. Akiyama
61'
L. Marseiler← M. Richter
67'
M. Dardai← N. Kolbe
67'
D. Kownacki← J. Thorsteinsson
87'
J. Boetius← K. Corredor
87'
B. Bialek← I. Lidberg
89'
Leon Jensen
90+6'
A. Rogel← J. Eitschberger

Possession

60%SV

Shots

14SV

Pass accuracy

51%SV

Statistics

SVHertha
Overview
60%Possession40%
14Total Shots15
7Corners2
12Fouls17
Shots
14Total Shots15
4On Target1
7Off Target8
3Blocked6
9Inside Box11
5Outside Box4
Passing
60%Possession40%
466Total Passes313
397Accurate Passes261
85%Pass Accuracy83%
Goalkeeping
0Saves4
Discipline
12Fouls17
1Yellow Cards1
1Offsides1

2. Bundesliga: SV Darmstadt 98 0–0 Hertha BSC

SV Darmstadt 98 and Hertha BSC drew 0-0 in 2. Bundesliga on August 24, 2025.

SV Darmstadt 98 controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor in Darmstadt.