SV Darmstadt 98 3–1 Hertha BSC: Result & Stats

SV Darmstadt 98

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Hertha BSC

A. Müller 81'

I. Lidberg 65'

P. Förster 45+2'

F. Niederlechner 21'

11/9/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 12Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9853%

×Draw21%

Hertha BSC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Darmstadt 98Expected goals in this matchHertha BSC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

1.41

SV Darmstadt 98

2.09

Hertha BSC

1.41

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 48% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

2.23

creates per match

1.54

1.27

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98

2.23

Hertha BSC

1.54

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.27

Hertha BSC

1.96

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98-0.35scores less

Hertha BSC+0.19scores more

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

Hertha BSC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw

74%

SV Darmstadt 98 or Hertha BSC

79%

Draw or Hertha BSC

47%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

31%

Hertha BSC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

88%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

62%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

34%

Hertha BSC 1+ goals

76%

Hertha BSC 2+ goals

41%

Hertha BSC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

67%

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.27 · 8 matches

Hertha BSC away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.96 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.23 + Hertha BSC defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.09

Hertha BSC attack 1.54 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

53%

level

21%

Hertha BSC scores more

26%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

M. Schuhen

SV Darmstadt 98 · G

8.2

Match Events

20'

Fynn Lakenmacher

21'

F. Niederlechner↳ D. Scherhant

23'

28'

37'

44'

45+2'

50'

52'

53'

Jón Dagur ÞórsteinssonGoal cancelled

59'

O. Vilhelmsson← F. Lakenmacher

59'

Guille Bueno← F. Nürnberger

65'

I. Lidberg↳ Guille Bueno

69'

M. Winkler← J. Þorsteinsson

69'

L. Schuler← F. Niederlechner

75'

M. Papela← P. Förster

81'

A. Müller↳ C. Riedel

82'

S. Prevljak← P. Dárdai

87'

Michaël Cuisance

88'

M. Maglica← K. Klefisch

88'

L. Marseiler← I. Lidberg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SVHertha

Overview

51%Possession49%

14Total Shots17

1Corners9

13Fouls18

Shots

14Total Shots17

4On Target7

8Off Target6

2Blocked4

9Inside Box13

5Outside Box4

Passing

51%Possession49%

459Total Passes416

389Accurate Passes355

85%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls18

5Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2