SV Darmstadt 98 0–2 Hertha Berlin: Result & Stats

SV Darmstadt 98

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hertha Berlin

10/30/2018

DFB Pokal · 2nd RoundStadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9830%

×Draw22%

Hertha Berlin48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Darmstadt 98Expected goals in this matchHertha Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.95

SV Darmstadt 98

1.50

Hertha Berlin

1.95

Hertha Berlin creates 30% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 10 away

2.00

creates per match

2.90

1.00

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98

2.00

Hertha Berlin

2.90

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.00

Hertha Berlin

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98+0.00on par

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

Hertha Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw

52%

SV Darmstadt 98 or Hertha Berlin

78%

Draw or Hertha Berlin

70%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

14%

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

78%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

44%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

19%

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals

86%

Hertha Berlin 2+ goals

58%

Hertha Berlin 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

38%

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 2.90, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.00 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hertha Berlin attack 2.90 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

30%

level

22%

Hertha Berlin scores more

48%

Hertha Berlin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff