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Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Hertha BSC
Hertha BSC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
J. Eitschberger 15'
F. Reese 2'
F. Hornby 62', 39' (pen)
2/1/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 20Olympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Hertha BSC41%
×Draw24%
SV Darmstadt 9835%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hertha BSC
1.62
SV Darmstadt 98
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Hertha BSC
1.42
SV Darmstadt 98
1.48

allows per match

Hertha BSC
1.47
SV Darmstadt 98
1.82

finishing

Hertha BSC-0.34scores less
SV Darmstadt 98+0.02on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Hertha BSC or draw
65%
Hertha BSC or SV Darmstadt 98
76%
Draw or SV Darmstadt 98
59%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC wins by 2+
21%
SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Hertha BSC 1+ goals
80%
Hertha BSC 2+ goals
48%
Hertha BSC 3+ goals
22%
SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
77%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
43%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)
54%
SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.47 · 12 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC attack 1.42 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.62

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.48 + Hertha BSC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hertha BSC scores more
41%
level
24%
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
35%

Hertha BSC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2
J. EitschbergerHertha BSCHertha BSC · D
8.0

Match Events

2'
F. Reese↳ M. Winkler
15'
J. Eitschberger
39'
F. HornbyPenalty
43'
Isac Lidberg
62'
F. Hornby↳ S. Lopez
68'
Luca Marseiler
70'
Dawid Kownacki
72'
M. Papela← N. Schmidt
74'
L. Schuler← M. Cuisance
78'
Matondo-Merveille Papela
82'
T. Leistner← M. Winkler
87'
Y. Furukawa← L. Marseiler
88'
Fraser Hornby
90+1'
F. Holland← F. Nurnberger

Possession

44%Hertha

Shots

13Hertha

Pass accuracy

49%Hertha

Statistics

HerthaSV
Overview
44%Possession56%
13Total Shots15
1.47Expected Goals (xG)2.40
4Corners6
9Fouls15
Shots
13Total Shots15
6On Target4
5Off Target6
2Blocked5
9Inside Box13
4Outside Box2
Passing
44%Possession56%
399Total Passes518
326Accurate Passes447
82%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
9Fouls15
0Yellow Cards4
1Red Cards0
2Offsides0

Match Recap: Hertha BSC vs SV Darmstadt 98

Hertha BSC and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 2-2 in 2. Bundesliga on February 1, 2026.

Goals: F. Reese (2'), J. Eitschberger (15'), F. Hornby (39' pen, 62').

SV Darmstadt 98 controlled possession (56%) and registered 15 shots to 13.

The match was played at Olympiastadion in Berlin.