Hertha BSC 1–1 SV Darmstadt 98: Result & Stats

Hertha BSC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

SV Darmstadt 98

A. Vukotić 62' (OG)

I. Lidberg 48'

4/12/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 29Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Hertha BSC41%

×Draw24%

SV Darmstadt 9835%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSCExpected goals in this matchSV Darmstadt 98

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.48

Hertha BSC

1.62

SV Darmstadt 98

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.42

creates per match

1.48

1.47

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Hertha BSC

1.42

SV Darmstadt 98

1.48

allows per match

Hertha BSC

1.47

SV Darmstadt 98

1.82

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Hertha BSC-0.34scores less

SV Darmstadt 98+0.02on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Hertha BSC or draw

65%

Hertha BSC or SV Darmstadt 98

76%

Draw or SV Darmstadt 98

59%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC wins by 2+

21%

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hertha BSC 1+ goals

80%

Hertha BSC 2+ goals

48%

Hertha BSC 3+ goals

22%

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

77%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

43%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)

54%

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.47 · 12 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC attack 1.42 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.62

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.48 + Hertha BSC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hertha BSC scores more

41%

level

24%

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

35%

Hertha BSC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

M. Dárdai

Hertha BSC · D

7.9

Match Events

25'

Killian Corredor

31'

Philipp Förster

48'

I. Lidberg

60'

M. Karbownik← K. Sessa

62'

A. VukotićOwn goal

67'

M. Papela← J. Boëtius

71'

Diego Demme

75'

L. Marseiler← P. Förster

78'

Clemens Riedel

83'

A. Bouchalakis← D. Demme

83'

F. Niederlechner← D. Scherhant

84'

M. Maglica← Sergio López

84'

M. Thiede← F. Nürnberger

90+3'

Ibrahim Maza

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HerthaSV

Overview

49%Possession51%

8Total Shots12

6Corners5

13Fouls11

Shots

8Total Shots12

1On Target4

7Off Target4

0Blocked4

5Inside Box5

3Outside Box7

Passing

49%Possession51%

396Total Passes423

329Accurate Passes356

83%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

4Offsides3