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SV Darmstadt 98 vs Fortuna Düsseldorf — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna Düsseldorf
M. Maglica 88'
F. Hornby 6'
J. de Wijs 11'
2/21/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 23Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9853%
×Draw22%
Fortuna Düsseldorf25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SV Darmstadt 98
1.98
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.28

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 55% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98
2.22
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.18

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98
1.38
Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.74

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98-0.12scores less
Fortuna Düsseldorf-0.78scores less

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw
75%
SV Darmstadt 98 or Fortuna Düsseldorf
78%
Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf
47%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
31%
Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
86%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
59%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
31%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals
72%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals
37%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
68%
Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.38 · 10 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.74 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.22 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.98

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.18 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
53%
level
22%
Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more
25%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
M. RichterSV Darmstadt 98SV Darmstadt 98 · M
8.9

Match Events

6'
F. Hornby↳ M. Richter
11'
J. de Wijs↳ F. Muslija
16'
J. Daland← J. de Wijs
19'
Sergio López
41'
Marco Richter
41'
Isac Lidberg
46'
L. Marseiler← F. Holland
46'
V. Lunddal← C. Lenz
68'
R. Petretta← I. Lidberg
73'
M. Papela← N. Schmidt
82'
S. Alexandropoulos← S. Tanaka
88'
M. Maglica↳ M. Richter
89'
J. Paulina← S. Appelkamp
90+6'
Killian Corredor
90+6'
Jesper Daland
90'
A. Vukotic← M. Richter

Possession

54%SV

Shots

14SV

Pass accuracy

51%SV

Statistics

SVFortuna
Overview
54%Possession46%
14Total Shots18
1.87Expected Goals (xG)1.66
4Corners11
12Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots18
4On Target9
5Off Target5
5Blocked4
10Inside Box12
4Outside Box6
Passing
54%Possession46%
446Total Passes361
365Accurate Passes287
82%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
9Saves2
0.20Goals Prevented0.20
Discipline
12Fouls14
4Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
0Offsides1

2. Bundesliga: SV Darmstadt 98 2–1 Fortuna Düsseldorf

SV Darmstadt 98 beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on February 21, 2026.

Goals: F. Hornby (6'), J. de Wijs (11'), M. Maglica (88').

SV Darmstadt 98 controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 18.

The match was played at Merck-Stadion am Bollenfalltor in Darmstadt.