Fortuna Düsseldorf 0–3 SV Darmstadt 98

Fortuna Düsseldorf

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

SV Darmstadt 98

I. Lidberg 74'

F. Nurnberger 67'

H. Akiyama 65'

9/21/2025

2. Bundesliga · Round 6Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf39%

×Draw25%

SV Darmstadt 9836%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fortuna DüsseldorfExpected goals in this matchSV Darmstadt 98

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.40

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.48

SV Darmstadt 98

1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.14

creates per match

1.48

1.31

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.14

SV Darmstadt 98

1.48

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.31

SV Darmstadt 98

1.82

+0.28scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.28scores more

SV Darmstadt 98+0.02on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw

64%

Fortuna Düsseldorf or SV Darmstadt 98

75%

Draw or SV Darmstadt 98

61%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

19%

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

77%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

43%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

19%

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

75%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

41%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

52%

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.14 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.48 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

39%

level

25%

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

36%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

F. Kastenmeier

Fortuna Düsseldorf · G

9.7

Match Events

10'

Isac LidbergGoal cancelled

61'

L. Marseiler← M. Richter

62'

E. Iyoha← Z. Celar

65'

H. Akiyama↳ I. Lidberg

67'

F. Nurnberger

72'

Patric PfeifferGoal cancelled

74'

I. Lidberg

75'

S. Alexandropoulos← C. Rasmussen

75'

D. Schmidt← T. Breithaupt

75'

J. Hettwer← M. Zimmermann

84'

L. Klassen← F. Nurnberger

84'

M. Papela← I. Lidberg

90+2'

F. Holland← H. Akiyama

90+2'

B. Bialek← F. Hornby

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FortunaSV

Overview

50%Possession50%

11Total Shots18

6Corners6

11Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots18

1On Target10

4Off Target6

6Blocked2

6Inside Box15

5Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

468Total Passes469

400Accurate Passes409

85%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

7Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Offsides2