SV Darmstadt 98 0–2 Fortuna Düsseldorf

SV Darmstadt 98

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Fortuna Düsseldorf

T. Rossmann 86'

A. Vukotić 55' (OG)

8/4/2024

2. Bundesliga · Round 1Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9855%

×Draw22%

Fortuna Düsseldorf24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Darmstadt 98Expected goals in this matchFortuna Düsseldorf

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.24

SV Darmstadt 98

1.99

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.24

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 60% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

2.26

creates per match

1.12

1.35

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98

2.26

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.12

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.35

Fortuna Düsseldorf

1.72

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.79scores less than expected

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98-0.15scores less

Fortuna Düsseldorf-0.79scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

Fortuna Düsseldorf →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw

76%

SV Darmstadt 98 or Fortuna Düsseldorf

78%

Draw or Fortuna Düsseldorf

45%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

32%

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

86%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

59%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

32%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals

71%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals

35%

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

70%

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.35 · 9 matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.72 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.26 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.99

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.12 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

55%

level

22%

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more

24%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

M. Zimmermann

Fortuna Düsseldorf · D

8.7

Match Events

54'

Fabian Nürnberger

55'

A. VukotićOwn goal

63'

F. Hornby← L. Marseiler

69'

J. Niemiec← D. Schmidt

74'

F. Lakenmacher← K. Gjasula

75'

O. El Idrissi← K. Klefisch

75'

M. Papela← M. Bader

78'

Aleksandar Vukotić

79'

Andre Hoffmann

81'

Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson

82'

Othmane El IdrissiCard upgrade

83'

Othmane El Idrissi

85'

T. Rossmann← F. Klaus

85'

J. de Wijs← S. Appelkamp

85'

J. Quarshie← A. Hoffmann

86'

T. Rossmann↳ M. Zimmermann

87'

T. Kempe← O. Vilhelmsson

89'

S. Suso← E. Iyoha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SVFortuna

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots11

7Corners6

16Fouls7

Shots

12Total Shots11

6On Target4

3Off Target5

3Blocked2

9Inside Box7

3Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

418Total Passes527

351Accurate Passes469

84%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

16Fouls7

2Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

4Offsides0