Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Fortuna Dusseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Fortuna Dusseldorf
Fortuna Dusseldorf
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
E. Iyoha 51'
4/16/20232. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 28Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Fortuna Dusseldorf39%
×Draw25%
SV Darmstadt 9836%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.48
SV Darmstadt 98
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.14
SV Darmstadt 98
1.48

allows per match

Fortuna Dusseldorf
1.31
SV Darmstadt 98
1.82

finishing

Fortuna Dusseldorf+0.28scores more
SV Darmstadt 98+0.02on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Dusseldorf ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Fortuna Dusseldorf or draw
64%
Fortuna Dusseldorf or SV Darmstadt 98
75%
Draw or SV Darmstadt 98
61%

Winning margin

Fortuna Dusseldorf wins by 2+
19%
SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fortuna Dusseldorf 1+ goals
77%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 2+ goals
43%
Fortuna Dusseldorf 3+ goals
19%
SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
75%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
41%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Dusseldorf (draw refunded)
52%
SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Dusseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Dusseldorf attack 1.14 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.48 + Fortuna Dusseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fortuna Dusseldorf scores more
39%
level
25%
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
36%

Fortuna Dusseldorf at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortuna Dusseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
A. HoffmannFortuna DusseldorfFortuna Dusseldorf · D
7.5

Match Events

23'
Emmanuel Iyoha
51'
E. Iyoha↳ D. Kownacki
61'
R. Hennings← D. Ginczek
71'
N. Gavory← F. Klaus
71'
J. de Wijs← E. Iyoha
79'
Clemens Riedel
83'
P. Pfeiffer← C. Riedel
83'
M. Honsak← F. Stojilković
83'
A. Seydel← F. Schnellhardt
87'
Phillip Tietz
88'
K. Bennetts← B. Manu
90+4'
Aaron Seydel
90+5'
J. Niemiec← M. Karbownik

Possession

43%Fortuna

Shots

6Fortuna

Pass accuracy

50%Fortuna

Statistics

FortunaSV
Overview
43%Possession57%
6Total Shots20
2Corners13
13Fouls7
Shots
6Total Shots20
4On Target3
2Off Target9
0Blocked8
5Inside Box13
1Outside Box7
Passing
43%Possession57%
349Total Passes447
281Accurate Passes363
81%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
13Fouls7
1Yellow Cards3
2Offsides4

Match Recap: Fortuna Dusseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98

Fortuna Dusseldorf beat SV Darmstadt 98 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on April 16, 2023.

Goals: E. Iyoha (51').

SV Darmstadt 98 controlled possession (57%) and registered 20 shots to 6.

The match was played at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf.