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Fortuna Düsseldorf vs SV Darmstadt 98 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna Düsseldorf
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
SV Darmstadt 98
SV Darmstadt 98
G. Haag 60'
M. van Brederode 41'
K. Corredor 72', 69' (pen)
1/17/20252. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 18Merkur Spiel-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Fortuna Düsseldorf39%
×Draw25%
SV Darmstadt 9836%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.48
SV Darmstadt 98
1.40

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.14
SV Darmstadt 98
1.48

allows per match

Fortuna Düsseldorf
1.31
SV Darmstadt 98
1.82

finishing

Fortuna Düsseldorf+0.28scores more
SV Darmstadt 98+0.02on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fortuna Düsseldorf ↓

SV Darmstadt 98 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Fortuna Düsseldorf or draw
64%
Fortuna Düsseldorf or SV Darmstadt 98
75%
Draw or SV Darmstadt 98
61%

Winning margin

Fortuna Düsseldorf wins by 2+
19%
SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Fortuna Düsseldorf 1+ goals
77%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 2+ goals
43%
Fortuna Düsseldorf 3+ goals
19%
SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals
75%
SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals
41%
SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Fortuna Düsseldorf (draw refunded)
52%
SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fortuna Düsseldorf at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.31 · 12 matches

SV Darmstadt 98 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.82 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 1.14 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.48

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 1.48 + Fortuna Düsseldorf defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fortuna Düsseldorf scores more
39%
level
25%
SV Darmstadt 98 scores more
36%

Fortuna Düsseldorf at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fortuna Düsseldorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
G. HaagFortuna DüsseldorfFortuna Düsseldorf · M
8.3

Match Events

20'
Giovanni Haag
41'
M. van Brederode↳ M. Kwarteng
60'
F. Lakenmacher← F. Hornby
60'
G. Haag
64'
M. Zimmermann← G. Haag
66'
Andreas Müller
69'
K. CorredorPenalty
72'
K. Corredor↳ A. Vukotić
76'
Valgeir Lunddal
79'
M. Thiede← Sergio López
79'
M. Papela← A. Müller
79'
O. Vilhelmsson← L. Marseiler
82'
J. Niemiec← V. Lunddal Friðriksson
82'
D. Schmidt← M. van Brederode
85'
Dawid Kownacki
85'
D. Pejčinović← M. Kwarteng
85'
V. Vermeij← D. Kownacki
90+3'
Tim Christopher Oberdorf
90+1'
M. Maglica← K. Corredor

Possession

48%Fortuna

Shots

16Fortuna

Pass accuracy

51%Fortuna

Statistics

FortunaSV
Overview
48%Possession52%
16Total Shots15
7Corners5
19Fouls9
Shots
16Total Shots15
7On Target5
4Off Target5
5Blocked5
8Inside Box8
8Outside Box7
Passing
48%Possession52%
386Total Passes435
320Accurate Passes353
83%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
3Saves5
Discipline
19Fouls9
4Yellow Cards1
1Offsides0

2. Bundesliga: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2–2 SV Darmstadt 98

Fortuna Düsseldorf and SV Darmstadt 98 drew 2-2 in 2. Bundesliga on January 17, 2025.

Goals: M. van Brederode (41'), G. Haag (60'), K. Corredor (69' pen, 72').

SV Darmstadt 98 controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 16.

The match was played at Merkur Spiel-Arena in Düsseldorf.