SV Darmstadt 98 1–0 FC Magdeburg: Result & Stats

SV Darmstadt 98

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

FC Magdeburg

P. Tietz 36'

5/19/2023

2. Bundesliga · Round 33Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

SV Darmstadt 9847%

×Draw21%

FC Magdeburg32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SV Darmstadt 98Expected goals in this matchFC Magdeburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.69

SV Darmstadt 98

2.06

FC Magdeburg

1.69

SV Darmstadt 98 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

2.23

creates per match

2.11

1.27

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

SV Darmstadt 98

2.23

FC Magdeburg

2.11

allows per match

SV Darmstadt 98

1.27

FC Magdeburg

1.89

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

SV Darmstadt 98-0.35scores less

FC Magdeburg+0.11scores more

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SV Darmstadt 98 ↓

FC Magdeburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

SV Darmstadt 98 or draw

68%

SV Darmstadt 98 or FC Magdeburg

79%

Draw or FC Magdeburg

53%

Winning margin

SV Darmstadt 98 wins by 2+

27%

FC Magdeburg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

SV Darmstadt 98 1+ goals

87%

SV Darmstadt 98 2+ goals

61%

SV Darmstadt 98 3+ goals

34%

FC Magdeburg 1+ goals

82%

FC Magdeburg 2+ goals

50%

FC Magdeburg 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

SV Darmstadt 98 (draw refunded)

59%

FC Magdeburg (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SV Darmstadt 98 at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.27 · 8 matches

FC Magdeburg away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.89 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SV Darmstadt 98 attack 2.23 + FC Magdeburg defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.06

FC Magdeburg attack 2.11 + SV Darmstadt 98 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SV Darmstadt 98 scores more

47%

level

21%

FC Magdeburg scores more

32%

SV Darmstadt 98 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SV Darmstadt 98 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

J. Lawrence

FC Magdeburg · D

8.3

Match Events

31'

Silas Gnaka

36'

P. Tietz↳ T. Kempe

38'

Phillip TietzGoal confirmed

45'

46'

62'

63'

70'

M. Honsak← F. Stojilković

71'

78'

80'

80'

85'

C. Piccini← D. Elfadli

85'

K. Brünker← M. El Hankouri

88'

T. Isherwood← F. Schnellhardt

88'

K. Bennetts← P. Tietz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SVFC

Overview

31%Possession69%

17Total Shots11

5Corners4

14Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots11

6On Target4

6Off Target4

5Blocked3

13Inside Box7

4Outside Box4

Passing

31%Possession69%

240Total Passes573

142Accurate Passes489

59%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

2. Bundesliga: SV Darmstadt 98 1–0 FC Magdeburg

SV Darmstadt 98 beat FC Magdeburg 1-0 in 2. Bundesliga on May 19, 2023.

Goals: P. Tietz (36').

FC Magdeburg controlled possession (69%) and registered 11 shots to 17.

The match was played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in Darmstadt.

SV Darmstadt 98 vs FC Magdeburg — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

2. Bundesliga: SV Darmstadt 98 1–0 FC Magdeburg